Nonscience (855 Views)

Tapit by almost any measure is one of the leading stallions standing in
America. According to the Gainesway website, Tapit was leading sire for three
years (2014-2016) and is the only stallion to be ranked in the Top 5 for each
of the last 9 years. Tapit currently stands for $185,000, down a bit from the
300K he stood for during his leading sire days. The website has some
outstanding video of Tapit enjoying his paddock time.

Tapit's Derby record as a stallion, considering his lofty perch, leaves
something to be desired:

YEAR/HORSE/FINISH/OFF ODDS

2012/Hansen/6th/13
2013/Normandy Invasion/4th/9
2014/Tapiture/6th/35
2015/Frosted/4th/10
2016/Mohaymen/4th/12
2016/Lani/5th/30
2016/Creator/13th/16
2017/Tapwrit/6th/27
2018/Hofburg/7th/27
2019/Tacitus/4th/6

Perhaps most surprising is that between 2012-2019, Tapit has only had these 10
runners in the Kentucky Derby. Thorographically, the best performance by a
Tapit at the Derby has been Frosted's negative 1 in 2015.

The reason I call this "nonscience" (and the reason I report the off odds here)
is because Essential Quality, by Tapit, will go to the gate at much shorter
odds than any of the 10 horses mentioned above. While the 10 off the board
finishes might point to Tapit somehow not being a Derby-worthy sire, one might
easily distinguish EQ from Tapit's previous 10 starters.

On the other hand Tapit has been a very effective Belmont Stakes sire, with
Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016) and Tapwrit (2017) winning three of the last
six Belmonts contested at 1-1/2 miles.

Five weeks and a quarter of a mile make that much difference? Aberration?