I used to work in racing for 20 years, and left it long ago completely. Eric Reed trained in the Midwest, and I was working as a grunt in the PR department of River Downs when one of his fillies won a small 2YO stake. I had to interview him for the weekly TV show. He's not an easy interview. He can be condescending. Racing offices in the Midwest have had to deal with a lot of nagging demands he's always got. But one thing he wasn't, and isn't, is one of these crooks whose horses suddenly turn into world beaters on the backstretches of Beulah Park. There are many other worse trainers in the 90s who had these kinds of reversals. He's not one of them. His results - over time - have been fairly steady.
The truth of what happened is probably simpler to understand: this year's Derby horses are just below par. There's a traditional standard for Derby caliber, and consciously or not we all know it. Not all Derby winners or Derby fields are at or above such a standard. For every Triple Crown winner - or horse that wins 2/3 of the Triple Crown - there are Dust Commanders, Cannonades, Mine That Birds, Kauai Kings, Proud Clarions, and now Rich Strikes. This batch of 2022 Derby prep winners is just below what the traditional Derby standard is. It's no more complicated than that, IMHO. Take Zandon. The Bluegrass was by far the weakest prep - only 1 GSW in the field. And 3 out, Zandon had every horse in front of him - 10 of them. In less than 3 furlongs he ran past all of them. Years in the business tells me when a horse can run down 10 rivals in less then 3/8 to win a graded stakes going away, one of two things is true: either this is a rare talent of horse; or the 10 he runs over are of no account. Time will prove the latter will be true long before the former. Zandon and Epicenter came through and had no excuses, especially the former. With a quarter to run, the race was theirs to decide. In hindsight, Epicenter being closer to the ridiculous pace probably did more to wobble his legs late because he hadn't run in 6 weeks - which is too long to be idle for a race like this. Zandon is the one who had no excuse. Oddly, Mo Donegal raced side-by-side with the winner all down the backside, yet he wheeled out far to the outside, when you wonder what would have happened had he kept his position. But overall, the bottom line is this: the 2022 Derby was below what we normally think of as Derby standard. The reverse is true of the Oaks, which was well above a traditional Oaks standard. If you're Lukas, I'm thinking you're probably lining up a van to Baltimore.
