In my view, you are likely to get your 5/2. Those who saw Ginobilli's last (like myself) will be overconfident about him. West Will Power has a nice string of outings against dubious fields.

Those two are habitual pace setters and figure throw down early. Dr. Law will have to catch them.

I don't understand why one would like an older horse off a top. The previous race is sure to beat the price down and as you mentioned open the door to a bounce or regression.