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Thoro-Graph
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No sheet genius here, but I agree that there look like a lot of potential forward moves in there, with no reason to think they've reached their top. But on that point, how much of a jump from their 2 year old best looks like too much?
Will be very interested to see what a Taiba's odds are day of.
If we can find an excuse for Morello's last, he will be monster value.
Thi
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ajkreider
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I would think that the FG horses have looked better as they've fanned out to other tracks. The Holy Bull also looks like a key race.
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ajkreider
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Has a -7 on his sheet. Question is if he ever circles back to that fig.
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ajkreider
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Didn't Saffie win the trainer title at GP this winter?
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ajkreider
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I will be playing O Captain underneath. Think there will be a decent pace to run in to, and he closed into a slow pace in the FOY. Was in the middle of that fall, and 2nd widest. He won't be that price out of the gate though.
Maybe a saver on top, but the top 3 deserve the billing.
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ajkreider
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Simplification was pounded even lower, and closer to gate time. Those were big bets.
Speaking of, I can't recall a first crop sire (Not This Time) producing two top-of-division horses like Epicenter and Simplification - both by mares with the same sire (Candy Ride).
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He also hit the board twice at 10F (Travers and Gold Cup). The Donn was a track record at the time. Pretty sure that a horse that sets a track record at 9 panels can "get" 10 (though, he did love him some GP).
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ajkreider
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It will get a decent number. The Mineshaft went in record time, but that horse runs 0s all day. Think it gets a similar fig as the earlier allowance race, that was won by a horse who looks like he moved forward off of his 2 year old top. Something in the 2.5/3 range makes Epi at least in the conversation.
Jock was looking back in the stretch like there was more there if needed.
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ajkreider
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Maybe it's the whales, but GP set a handle record for Holy Bull day.
Somebody's betting.
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ajkreider
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I think they want to save the turf course, as it usually gets torn up pretty bad as the year progresses. But they're having more trouble with it this year than in years past (part of it is also new, I think).
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ajkreider
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Didn't they change the gate recently to make the 1 less punitive?
Regardless, it's not good for KA. The pluses, are he gets his rail trip if he wants it, and KA seems able to relax behind horses.
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Something worth noting about Rock Your World's race shapes:
TG's average coming out is around :22, which is pretty middle of the pack. However, his first two races on the turf were :22.5 each. His lone break in a dirt race was :21.1. That's the quickest break of any horse in a route in here.
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ajkreider
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Not a deep dive, but a couple of interesting exotic plays look like Competitive Speed and Will's Secret.
CS's last puts in the 2nd tier, but like the fact that she almost got back to her peak from 3 races prior. Expect a move forward, and that gives her a shot to hit the board at 50-1.
WS also paired after taking a step back last out. Her fig makes her a player all by itself. 3
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The hardest thing for me to read about KA's sheet is the effect of the equipment change.
If the blinkers moved him up, that's not really development. The ability might well have been there as a 2 year-old, and he's just now running to his potential. What would have his 2 year-old top have been, had he run that race with blinkers?
That's pretty much unknowable, but I ca
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I believe that "other number" is the one JB revised. It makes the horse a win candidate as opposed to a toss as a bounce candidate.
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It's probably worth separating the GP runners that won the FD from the ones that didn't
In the last 15 years, 9 winners of the FD have hit the tri in May (not all were multiple runners).
2 of those other 6 - Constitution and Quality Road - didn't run but would have vied for favoritism. The rest, Materiality, Dialed In, Take Charge Indy, and Scat Daddy, finished 8th, 8th, 19t
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ajkreider
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I don't know about that. Part of the joy of youth is the newness of the world. An older person in a younger person's body would just be a cynic w/o the joint pain.
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ajkreider
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That horse has also not gone backwards through 5 races.
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ajkreider
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At a bit of a loss concerning how to work out this Derby.
There's one horse that clearly fastest, but it might be going in the wrong direction. It's not quite 0-2-X, but if it were an 0-1.5-?
Then there are 5 between 1.25 and 2.75. Those sheets look like they could move forward, but wouldn't be shocked for any to pair or go back. 8 more horses have a 3 in a route.
A gro
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ajkreider
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Big Brown is another who broke his maiden on turf. Also one that lacked foundation.
Finished up the career with a pretty fast turf win, if memory serves.
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For a long while, since they'd gone to regular 20 horse fields, the horse that ran the biggest fig in the Derby was the winner. Which is a bit odd, as you'd think ground loss would factor more in determining the winner. Says a bit about what kind of horse wins this race and how to bet it. But I think the last handful of years has changed that up a bit.
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That latter race was a sprint that, time wise, stacks up well against the CZ Rocket race. Not really comparable to the two turn races.
TG will likely have a bigger gap between BMS and the Arky winner, because of weight and trip, but the former is a quality older stakes horse.
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Think Super Stock gets a good fig. Would expect something only a couple of points worse than what By My Standards will get.
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That seems like a very tough read. If the comps are other two-year-olds, seems like you'd have to discount the numbers based on the natural progression from two to three (in order to work backwards). And that's kinda of guess, no?
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Looking forward to the figs.
Can't make up my mind about the FD. Slower than marginal older horses in a G3 isn't great and KA saved ground. But they came home a lot faster, and the race was about 2 seconds faster than the filly race. The winner in that G3 blew the doors off the field, so maybe a good number, but not too good to expect a bounce?
All in all, an Unknown Agenda. H
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Horse has been run really bizarrely. In the Hopeful, it looked like the plan was to have him forwardly placed, and the he was pretty much eased with a 1/4 to go.
In the Saratoga Special, he spotted the leader 22 lengths, before finishing 11 back (which is what you'd think for a Dialed In).
Last he was wide all the way around in a stalker position and finished evenly.
If he's
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ajkreider
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Looks like will be able to get one or two path if they want it. Last was a good enough number to be in the discussion, and with trouble at that.
Three races, two good sized jump ups. Odds have come down interestingly. Will get a read from Prioritize in an earlier race.
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