Show all posts by user
Thoro-Graph
Page 1 of 30
Pages: 12345
Results 1 — 30 of 897
Been awhile since i posted, but…. That’s just wrong, for what its worth. If the variant is 12 for the entire 8.5F it would be half that at the halfway pt of the race, or 6 pts at 4.25F. The variant needs to be distributed over the whole race. U can do the math from there. To really do it right internally you would also need wind direction and speed.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
I would think Baffert and Johnny V probably send Medina for the lead and hope for the best, no?
Just sayin...
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Just trying to do my part in this @#$%& show. I got lucky and wound up on the right side of this pandemic but there are many businesses on the other side. Besides, I like (and probably need) bars as a stress reliever. So I want to help keep a few of them around. :)
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Watch the way he always turns his head to the right in the stretch and isn't focused, then the jock gets him focused and he finds another gear quickly. Very athletic, smaller bodied type. There haven't been fans in the stands lately so hes not looking at that. I dunno why he keeps doing it. I think maybe he is looking for another horse coming from outside him, which he doesn't
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Depends upon the trainer IMO. Smart question but asked the wrong way. First figure out what a trainer “usually†does in the AM. Watch for any horse who stands out based on that. But pay attention when someone does something different. Especially the athlete.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Excessive use of the whip? She just missed winning.
Pretty soon they will be giving out speeding tickets to the jocks at Santa Anita.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Don’t think that was what he was saying. They can’t see “All the bets.†What they can do is rum bet optimizations based on calculated win probability and odds for legs 1 and 2 in the sequence and look for overlays based on win odds in leg 1 and daily double probables and then projected win probabilities in the rest of the races in the sequence and then in ONE PUSH send all those optimiz
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
I will say this about that race, as far as jocks go I can't think of anyone better right now at finishing late in a race than Saez. He's always been pretty good out of the gate, but he is stronger now late than he used to be. Reminds me of Laffit, actually, who was about as good late as anyone ever in terms of blending hands, whip, body motion, race riding, and getting horse and jock i
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
If his wife/girlfriend hangs around the bar and is hot I would start hitting on her.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Yes, I get it. Clearly in California the start of the race doesn't matter at all. You can be the 7 horse and wipe out the 6, 5 and 4 and since it isn't clear whether this cost them a better a placing it is ok. Or maybe not if they actually fall down or lose their jockey. Perhaps the jock on Shared Belief should have pulled up or jumped off.
In any case, the KY Derby is a roughl
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
No way this thing gets overturned. And now we have the horse who won the KY Derby skipping the Preakness, and we have the horse who was PLACED first in KY Derby skipping the Preakness. All of which is no good for the sport, fans or the TV ratings.
We also now have "a precedent" established for the DQ of the winner of the KY Derby. Meanwhile we all know there is "technically
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
You guys are obtuse. I am saying the horse broke, and then stayed on his wrong lead all the way down the stretch heading into the first turn. I could care less if a horse breaks with a right lead or left lead out of the gate. But they are supposed to get out of the gate and then RUN DOWN THE STRETCH ON THE CORRECT LEAD. They are also supposed to run around the turns on their left lead and ru
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Dude, I answered your question twice. In the SA Derby the horse broke out of the gate on his wrong lead and ran down the stretch into the first turn that way. They usually break out of the gate and then run down the stretch on the correct lead.
He also ran on his wrong lead in the Rebel.
He did not do this at the age of two. So I think there could be a physical issue pending as I vie
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
He broke out of the gate on his wrong lead and ran down the stretch that way headed into the first turn of the race. So the first 1/4 mile. Watch the replay.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Watch him, he is on his wrong lead down the stretch heading to first turn in SA Derby. Theory is that if a horse is on the wrong lead it's either because they don't know better or have some type of issue. Knowing he never had lead problems at 2 I am thinking it is the later.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Some good points here Frank.
Tough to say whether Omaha Beach bounces or not. He's not acting like it so far, but we will see how he comes out of his work. I think he's a deserving favorite, but it is tough to see him moving forward in this spot.
The horse I plan to play against is Maximum Security. I'm of the opinion that he's had 4 races and had it all his own way i
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
I read he had a suspensory ligament tear. Depending upon how bad it was, they don't always come all the way back from that.
It's not like they retired him right after the Belmont and said C-ya.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Well, i got to chime in here.
All i can say is ive seen worse.
Good for this board to notice and you wont find a more intelligent discussion anywhere.
Better for those who got out.
And it is what it is.
Always has been and ever will be.
But the blatency, if that’s even a word, is truly and utterly astounding.
Hell with being subtle is snother way to say it.
But that
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
I dont have clown vision to see through fog. And i wasnt there.
And No. I’m saying Justify’s was better.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
What i was told was that Justify rebroke when saw Bravazzo at the wire. If he passed him at all it was briefly.
I dunno what the number will be. Guess would be -1 or -.075 depending upon ground. Cant tell where Justify was on 2nd turn, maybe 3 path average? But running eyeball to eyeball for the first mile is tough on any horse. What happened to AP when Frosted ran with him in the Travers
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Here’s as good as i could find. And Bravazzo did not gallop out past him. Just sayin.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
A thought I haven't seen mentioned. Healthy 3 year olds are supposed to be running a fair amount of tops in the spring.
You could also argue that IR was one of best bred for more distance and slop. Bloodstock guy I know named David Miller had him picked on top and sells his ky derby report on brisnet.
Suppose you could also say Bravazzo had an off race at FG where he was getting out
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
WTF?
You are obviously referring to my reply to Frank D's post. He posted that he and I had discussed Justify pre race and that both his and my opinion of Justify had changed. He invited me BY NAME to respond, and I responded to that post. That's it.
If that makes me a red boarder in your eyes then I dunno what else to say other than you are being very selective in how you
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Rich, I have no clue what you are referring to. I'm not as witty as you. Help me understand. Far as I can remember I haven't posted anything about how I did on the Derby.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
For what its worth i will back Frank D on this. We discussed Justify privately and pick 4,5. And his post was pre-race. I think he did just fine for the day, but he’s not going to say it.
Where is Jimbo?
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Bigfiveguy,
I'm surprised no one has pointed this out to you yet. But as I understand it, the TG Race Shapes are not intended to be used as a pace predictor. Rather, they are designed to be used as a predictor for how a race will set up to give a better understanding of which horses are more or less likely to be given a ground saving trip. You can read this in the TG Intro section rega
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Well Frank,
As you know, when I saw Justify's last work it converted me. The gallop out after that long of a work was one of the best I had ever seen. I figured if he got out of the gate and ran his race no one would beat him. That was a completely different opinion than I had had previously on the colt.
When I saw the half mile time come up in 45 and change and he was right on th
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
As someone who bought the TG pre oaks/derby special I don't think its very cool that people are giving out specific numbers of who ran what on a free message board. You guys want to talk patterns, etc. Cool. You want to give out free numbers that others paid for, I say private message each other.
Show some respect for the people who bought the data and the people who are selling it.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
JB, you’re a man of few words. I’ve been trying to say more or less exactly that. About sums it up. If Justify turns out to be all that then fine. But he hasnt shown how he lays over this field and i’m tired of hearing people talk about him that way.
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Justify does not lay over this field on Thorograph, and he does not look athletic on that workout video. He looks like a big, long-striding colt. That's not what people mean when they call a horse athletic.
Audible is a good example of an athletic colt - quick turn of foot, able to move in and out and/or make multiple moves.
Not saying one is better than the other, or that they a
by
mjellish
-
Ask the Experts
Page 1 of 30
Pages: 12345