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Thoro-Graph
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I like him a lot too....although I haven't seen his sheet yet. I'm certain he can get the distance, but the big issue I have is this will be his third race since 3/26.
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jack72906
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Materiality also had a horrible draw. Thought he ran well in spite of it.
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Great call Paul! Best of luck on the rest of the card.
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AJ,
You don't like the distance or you don't like the distance against this particular field because he has won at the distance against a pretty good field in the Cigar...
I agree on Bayern and feel that he was just geared down at CD when they realized he didn't have it that day. I think he'll run tomorrow.
FYI: 24 races at 1m this meet at Belmont and 0 winners from p
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..and Frenchy is riding well today. 6 starts, 2 wins, 2 places, and 1 show. Next mount is on the Moon
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A- Dortmund, Frosted
B- American Pharoah, Firing Line
C- Carpe Diem, Bolo, Danzig Moon, Upstart, Mubtahiij
Sleeper running late-Keen Ice and Frammento
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Friday was Friday and today is today. Could be a completely different story... today. Hoping for a fair track.
Good luck everyone!
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Ha...that's almost as good as me telling this very drunk couple in gold room at Arlington that I kind of liked AK and she said...(slurring of course).."WHAT?!? Animal Kingdom!?!? I would never bet that horse! It's the worst ****ing ride at Disney World ever!"
They were nowhere to be found after the race
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AK also had the first time dirt angle working for him
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This is pretty much how I feel. I want to play Upstart and/or Frosted so bad, but IMO the draw hurt Upstart and he'll likely be caught wide...oh...and the antibiotic thing. He's also run 4 straight killers. I love the horse but those are legitimate concerns IMO. As far as Frosted, the throat surgery is a huge question mark. I have yet to read an article and/or post that can convince me
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I use these figures because I trust them more than any other. That's why I spend the $40 on the seminar and pre-entries. Speed figures are one piece of the big puzzle. Yes we can see that there are seven horses faster, but will all 7 be faster than him on Saturday? For a lot of reasons, I doubt it.
I get that this is a TG board and we can discuss who is going to run the fastest figure on
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A few things to like:
He's big and he'll more than likely be able to find a comfortable position behind the first flight.
He'll get 10f.
Had a lead against Firing Line in the stretch in the Bob Lewis, gave it up, and he came back to beat him. Gutsy
He's run a figure fast enough to win.
He's won at the Churchill
I understand the pattern piece of it, but c
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I'm more inclined to use Bolo a little more after the draw. Like many others I like Danzig Moon to be in the mix, but I'm nervous about LeParoux being able to work out a trip from the inside. I still have that horrific ride he put on Union Rags a few years ago stuck in my mind.
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This is the one horse I am having the toughest time with because of everything you said, SC. I've read several posts and heard many comments about how deep and tiring the GP surface was this winter.
Does he need a break or is he just a freak? He'll be between 10 and 20-1 with that pattern....tough call
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This is the most difficult piece of a very difficult puzzle. Way too many horses with the same running style. Post position and a possible track bias that day will be more important this year than most..
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Thanks Frank!
...now mix yourself a "high ball" and go back to watching the Weather Channel
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I did something similar to what you are talking about last year. Typically not the best race to bet because of the difficulty of the puzzle, but the pools are so big...why not?
Not wanting to bet a lot on the race I put together a pool of money with a couple friends and ending up betting around $500 total on the race. The only horse I was sure I was using was Commanding Curve. Up and down and
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3.25 new top (3.25 to 0). Was off a year and the BC race was second off the layoff....
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Mj,
Thanks for the great analysis. I agree with your thoughts on Carpe Diem but I have a tough time playing Pletcher horses on Derby Day. I guess we'll have to see how they are running in the races leading up to the Derby.
The next three weeks should be a lot of fun
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A lot to like about him and I really want to like him more but he has sort of that Nehro feel to me. Always runs his race but never gets there. Add in the fact that his only win is mdn and he'll probably be the "wise guy" horse and....
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If he doesn't run the rest of the year of the year, I still think he's the 3yo champ......
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Happy 4th from the Boss...a little gift from Passaic '78
Looking forward to the Spaaaaaaa!!!
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Gonna be very interesting to see how the numbers come back for this one....Wilkinson? Ran one figure that is borderline competitive....
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Pathetic...all ya did was bitch about the "East coast bias" but where were your selections? Easy to come in here post race and pop off. Get back to the rail, bird.
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