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Thoro-Graph
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If you’re right, they will find it in the post race testing- Baffert got nailed for picogram quantities remember. That’s one trillionth of a gram.
No- horse racing is a non-deterministic event. We spend a lot of time on the data- trying to predict the future by studying the past. But the game involves randomness and chaos too- that’s why you get results like yesterday
Long ago I told mys
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smithkent
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I don’t play as much as I used to, though I am planning to go to the Big Cap next weekend- that used to be a premium day of racing in the springtime.
The effect of the Saudi cup and the Dubai World Cup on the big races in the US is pretty profound. There would’ve been a lot of good talent showing up next weekend down in Arcadia. Now the purse is down to 650K- why bother for that chump change?
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smithkent
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Both performed professionally, fully deserved their wins
Yet, they lacked the sizzle that we were hoping to see
In both cases there was amazing hype to build up the event, then the air came out of the balloon when the favorite won
Hope we all don't end up yawning if we have a triple crown winner this year!
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smithkent
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Those are some great numbers you posted, thanks
It shows how difficult this game is! You have done really well, though the rebates make it possible to have a gain overall, even if you don't show a positive number at the end of the year
I'm not a big player, so no rebate help. I just enjoy gambling on a horse race better than casino games
One other factor-taxes. The way winni
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smithkent
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His bombastic owner needs to thank New York City and head back to Topaz Lake- a godforsaken place if you have ever driven by it
The horse was a great story, and a worthy Derby winner
He wasn't up to the caliber of the other 12 TC greats, whatever the reason
Congrats to the winner and those who backed him
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smithkent
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Actually, it's a known unknown
CC gets to use it, another factor in his favor I suppose
I followed the wailing and gnashing of teeth here about that, but don't think it is what made him so good. You have to allow for the possibility that his numbers got better for reasons of training and maturation. You will need a controlled experiment to prove a horse can improve by leaps and
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smithkent
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For me, backups with multiple other horses in pick 3 and pick 4
Exactas with multiple horses without CC
wide superfecta wheel/box with no CC
With all backups, include the absolute longest shots, even if you think absolutely no way by standard deterministic methods. If they have 4 legs they can win.
Weird things happen, though I hope not this Saturday.
I took my elderly father to t
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smithkent
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Interesting bet, like a point spread
There would have to be serious $$ to cash for a bet to equal Belmont 1973
No, I'm saying that unexpected greatness is possible, just like the possibility of abject failure. We all have become used to the bad outcomes for so long that it's hard to think it could be otherwise
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smithkent
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"Tremendous machine" lengths
Yeah, Secretariat was the greatest, but he only had 3 other tired horses in that field...
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smithkent
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the Belmont distance adds so many unknowns for CC to win the TC
those same variables affect the competition too
Many things seem to indicate "all systems go"
The horse reportedly training well over the Belmont surface
weather looks to be good. He has handled large crowds calmly
His jock has had the TC experience before, is getting some rides there beforehand
While he
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smithkent
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all you folks are so suspicious here about the drug use in horses, analyzing the data to show who is suspicious- and with good cause
Yet in that Belmont, the horse was stopped by the actions of his jockey, in quite a mysterious way, never fully explained to the betting public
Given the seediness of his owners and trainer, acknowledged steroid using, etc, you HAVE to concede the possibility
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smithkent
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Oh, beg to differ with you here
the 2008 Belmont had a 9 horse field, with BB an overwhelming favorite, went off at 1:4
If you knew BB would not finish in the top 4 you could easily make a major score with the exotics. Look at the payouts for the pick 4, pick 6 or probably the best vehicle, vertical wagers. The superfecta paid over 48k that day, which is huge with such a small field. T
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smithkent
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the hottest day of racing I've ever experienced
120,000 screaming sweaty New Yorkers silenced in moments when the horse was pulled up, an event still never fully explained.
Of all the conspiracy theories and inside jobs in our sport, that event stands out. The money that was made by somebody by having BB finish last would be astounding, yet nobody ever really investigated that. I wo
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smithkent
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On why CC can't win the Belmont
Yes, visually he had to work more this time, since SI moved early
But that horse WANTS to win, a quality that isn't easily quantitated
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smithkent
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Well, you can turn that around and look at it differently. One big thing about CC that is different than the competition is race experience and fitness
Since he came from the lower ranks as far as breeding goes, the money invested in him was far less. He was not that dominant till he got some races under his belt, and got a quality jockey
He is more similar to the old style training up to
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smithkent
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You get the wrong idea
this is the hardest game out there, and I am awed by the knowledge of the people who post here
sometimes the smartest people make it harder than it is. I suggest that's the case this time around for the Triple Crown races
CC looks to be an exceptional talent by every measure right now, especially in the one that counts-winning the horse race
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smithkent
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Speed figures are derived from a real hooves on the ground race
They are very useful to find talented horses that are being overlooked by other handicapping tools. I'm amazed at the number of high priced winners that are posted here in the ROTW
However, like all derivatives, they have limitations. I see many discussions here about pattern interpretation or discussions about the quali
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smithkent
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Even after California Chrome convincingly put away the field, there are still doubters. I mean, that performance gave me the shivers, same as when Barbaro won.
I respect all the knowledgeable folks here, but that horse was clearly the class today. So much of the discussions on this forum in the past week were attempts to explain why CC couldn't or shouldn't win. He DECIMATED the f
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smithkent
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CC number wise is just fine
Don't let east coast-centric viewpoint cloud your vision
That is some horse!
Now, betting the favorite goes against my grain too
But he towers over the current field
This time I'm likely to play him at 2-1 or better, he just looks like the real deal to me
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smithkent
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I always lurk on this forum, because I get pounded down by the far more knowledgeable folks here anytime I post
However- I work in biosciences- and they talk about the distinction between genotype and phenotype in my business
Genotype- what your DNA contains- all the information that comes from your predecessors
Phenotype- how that DNA expresses itself in a living being- the real being
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smithkent
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Yeah, Bode got beat, though he lived up to his TG numbers
The winner, as well as Creative Cause showed up
Oh, yeah-Liaison beat Union Rags
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smithkent
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I did purchase the seminar
It tossed all the West Coast horses for various reasons (Bode is a left coast horse by virtue of his trainer and the preponderance of his racing success), and recommended keying Union Rags, Gemologist, TCI and perhaps Dullahan
The analysis of Bafferts previous Kentucky Derby horses in the seminar I find fallacious- the guy has a record of success in this race- in
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smithkent
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With all due respect to everyone here, who are far more savvy handicappers than myself...
Bodemeister at 7-1, Ky Derby winning trainer, the horse named after his own son? His post position is great, doesn't put him at a disadvantage like the rail or far outside
For a site that purports to give the most accurate numbers, I'm surprised that all of you are discounting Bodemeister, ge
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smithkent
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Well written, storylines came together at the end
Legendary actors Hoffman, Nolte
Brave attempt to show the sport with live action
Set in the shrine of West Coast racing
It could have continued, but the season was complete in itself
someday, will be remembered as one of the best overall racing oriented works ever done...
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smithkent
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guess there are some limitations to the analysis here
The Factor decided to toss all of you!
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smithkent
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Reconsider-mjellish you are one of the best posters here and have hit many gems in the past. a big race like this years Derby is sometimes indecipherable. It's not you, it's the race. That said, maybe AK is an exceptional animal that grew up right in front of our eyes-is a Triple Crown possible here? My first Derby live and it was phenomenal.
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smithkent
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Sure let's close down Santa Anita-One of tHe best places to see a race live. Lets let our game only happen at places like finger Lakes or Turfway- thats where the future is...
California racing has short fields because the number of owners has fallen drastically-there just aren't as many folks who can afford to be an owner any more. the monthly cost is around 3500 per horse- no way yo
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smithkent
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You guys take things so personally here!
I respect the opinions of this board, as they are folks who are very serious about handicapping a horserace.
My observations about the Blue Grass and Lexington results were relating to the difficulty of picking winners, even given the brightest and most studious opinions.
I still think mjellish made a great call when he picked Eskendereya for the Fo
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smithkent
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Following the board for the last couple of weeks with the Bluegrass and now the Lexington results. Lots of good handicappers, but nobody with strong opinions in favor of the ultimate winners.
Maybe some races can't be figured- 3 year olds on synthetic surfaces seem to make it impossible.
Hope the Ky Derby is decipherable. I'm hoping Eskendereya is the real deal-the numbers seem
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smithkent
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