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Thoro-Graph
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Post Time was can’t miss television for those of us around long enough to remember.
Jerry’s handicapping acumen was unrivaled, and was not limited to just the ponies, it also extended to the political arena.
To wit - Jerry’s analysis of the 1992 general election:
Political Horse of the Year
Deficit: $4 trillion
Distance: Interminable
Bush: In his 3 year old campaign Bush took
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Jerry - that one might just top your Imperioli/Mini-Me story.
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FrankD. Wrote:
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>
> IMHO: It defeats the entire purpose of the bets
> structure. In the get more handle regardless of
> who or how it hurts/helps business mode, it’s
> just another advantage for the BOTS.... A 10% or
> 12% rebate on a $2 10k ticket or a $10 50k ticket?
> Plus they still collect a single ticket
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Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> Further enlightenment on the jackpot topic from
> @CHRBMike from three July 27th tweets which are
> entirely from his twitter page.
>
> (1) The California Horse Racing Board reviewed the
> wagering transactions that led to one account
> holder winning the entire Pick 6 pool Sunday at
> De
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BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I have only analyzed the accuracy of the DD method
> seriously for NYRA. DRF is obviously casting a
> wider net, and I wonder if the method is less
> accurate for smaller tracks and if using the early
> win betting to refine the DD projections is more
> important there.
I've probably don
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Hence my point.
If they analyzed 20K races to come up with their algo, they should've seen that the DD Will Pays are the best predictor of final odds (as they in fact stated they found themselves).
So why are they messing around with 10mtp to 5mtp odds which ultimately end up converging on the more accurate Will Pay odds come post time?
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Never thought I'd see the day. Not sure about that 10mtp adjustment though..
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FYI -- final odds look pretty good here if you're looking to beat the faves, who took all the action in the Will Pays:
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Uggh, don't even get me started..
Good seeing you Joe, along with a few other new and familiar faces.
Some great stories and insight, and the weather couldn't have been better.
Rocky
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Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> Toppled:
>
> Closing day and mandatory payout day for the
> Empire. Your theory didn't hold up on this one.
> (Leg 1 a 3-5 single to just add on the front end
> of a p5 to increase the payout. Even 50 cents
> worth of the p6 let's say by simply adding the 3-5
> and paying for
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As we approach the end of the Spa meet with another mandatory payout day coming up, I thought it’d be worthwhile to take a look at the value of the Empire 6 bet, both independently and vis-à -vis the Pick 5.
Seeing as we’re less than 20 race days into the launch of the new bet, it’s still far too early to make any statistically significant conclusions, but I’m already seeing the expect
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Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> I'm not a huge PTF or Music fan. That doesn't
> mean I dislike either. But I know several on here
> are Really into music and horses so I post it for
> all of you. Of course, the paragraph below
> resonated with me regardless.
>
> _____________________________
>
> And
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Fairmount1 Wrote:
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>
> Most meaningful gambling news of the weekend:
> NYRA doesn't allow the bots the same access to the
> late pick 5 that they have in the other pools.
> HINT: Put your money here where there is already
> a low takeout. (Compare yesterday's pick 5 to
> pick 4 and you will see what
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Silver Charm Wrote:
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>
> I think Serengetti can handle this and I think she
> can rate a little. Can she pop it from there? Well
> that is the big question because her usual style
> is to run the others off their feet with her
> speed.
>
FWIW Amoss said on more than one occasion on NYRA feed over the past cou
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Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> In general , I'd say the chalk is underused, or
> put another way, stabbers/wheelers overbet the
> longshots underneath.
That used to be true in the win pool as well (the widely known "favorite-longshot" bias), still true to some extent, but much less so now, particularly on the favorite si
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Was listening to Andy S commenting on the exacta payout after the 3rd race at the Spa today. The 3-1 shot second choice finished over the Even money favorite, with the $2 Ex returning $19.20. Andy felt it should have paid around $12 and proclaimed that exactas with the 2nd or 3rd choice finishing over the favorite continues to offer the best value in racing.
My curiosity piqued, I did a quick
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> Boscar Obarra Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> > At some point, he's (Chad Brown) running against himself.
jma11473 Wrote:
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> I'm pretty sure this is that point.
Well, if we didn't reach that point in the Diana, we literally reached it today in the Lake George.
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Mstrlucky74 Wrote:
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> Six entries Chad has four. HA HA HA!!
It's a Chad, Chad, Chad, Chad World
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Not quite sure where you're getting that 6-1. Based on a $266 Will Pay and a $43.60 leg 1 winner, after adjusting for takeout that works out to around 4-1.
I think I posted the takeout-adjusted formula on the board somewhere before, but for reference here's what it boils down to at NYRA tracks:
Expected $2 Payout = 1.73 x ($2 Will Pay / Leg 1 Winner $2 Payout)
In this case it
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FWIW the final price ended up identical to the Will Pays. Having said that, it was indeed a big drop (from 6-1 to 7-2 after they were loaded in the gate). Might not have hurt that Maggie chimed in with big endorsement as they were about to load either.
A note about big late action and Will Pays:
When a horse's odds are way out of whack with the corresponding Will Pays in the final minu
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Highly recommended, as is pretty much anything Barry has written.
Don’t let the title fool you, it sounds like some cheesy get-rich quick scheme, but it’s full of great money management tips, everything from how to construct a fair odds line to calculating your EV (betting edge) to estimating exotic wager payouts and overlays. He just came out with a new book by the way called “The Skept
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No shortcut, but I ran the numbers.
Implied payouts (ex-DQ) based on final win odds, using discounted Harville:
$2 Exacta: $490
$2 Tri: $7,340
$2 Super: $69,740
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At Charles Town, the Pick 6 has only a 12% takeout and they apportion 30% of the pool towards the jackpot pool if there’s no lone winner. They offer a $.20 wager, but patrons must bet a minimum of 5 combinations, or $1.00, on their ticket.
By my math, unless the payout was a really big underlay, it looks like that $9,631 payout is based on a $.20 ticket (a total of 128 winners), not a $1 tic
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BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I think that puts him in the lead in two-turn
> Beyer clubhouse. While the figure may be right,
> there are certainly questions about how predictive
> it will prove. Gulfstream seemed to be
> speed-friendly yesterday, and Maximum Security was
> allowed to set relatively slow fractions.
>
&g
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Richie -- didn't see the 20-1, I took a snapshot as they were getting in the gate and she was already 10-1. There was some last minute movement, but it was all on the chalk, who went from 3/5 in the gate to 1.5/5, which was right in line with her DD-implied odds. The other entries all drifted higher in the last flash, included Street Band, although she did drift up the least, going off at 10
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That's about why I had as well (actually 23-1 based on the top 3 choices from the prior race), so he went off right about where expected based on the Will Pays.
Having said that, because of the fact that War of Will was significantly lower on the tote than in the Will Pays (4/5 vs. 8.5/5), there were at least seven other entries that were substantially higher than their Will Pay odds at 1
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ajkreider Wrote:
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> My takeaways from Saturday.
>
> Haikal is the real deal. Don't know what number
> it gets but think Vino might have slipped into
> negative territory, and that race compares very
> well. Haikal got his last fraction a full second
> quicker than the others in the blanket finish, and
&g
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Bit -- I mistyped in previous post (edited), I use the top 3 favorites, not the top 3 finishers, so we should be pretty close.
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Hey Bob --
Yes, I take into account the takeout rate for both the daily double and the win pool for the particular track as well as the difference between the two in the computations.
I also make a small adjustment for breakage and put all three lines (Morning Line, Will Pays implied odds, Final Line) on the same scale based on the win takeout and breakage estimate for the particular tra
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