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Thoro-Graph
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We’ll be posting sheets for last weekend today or tomorrow, but the most noticeable thing about the Derby is how many ran Xs (again).
Another obvious noticeable thing is that there were three Baffert/Yakteen horses that ran Saturday, none well.
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TGJB
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It doesn’t have to be a breakthrough and it isn’t really a profile, we never even put those things together in one table before. It just shows some things that indicate a horse in the Derby is likely to run well relative to himself. We also said a horse had to be fast enough going in— we don’t make a practice of predicting 8 point tops.
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TGJB
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Archives.
Scott— if it was already a canard Meredith didn’t invent it.
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TGJB
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You’re all drawing an awful lot of conclusions based on one horse jumping up synth/dirt. If that horse doesn’t draw in the morning line favorites finish 1-2.
What’s more interesting is, look at the two most similar ones, and what they did in the Preakness.
I was all in on Zandon in futures exactas at 18 and 22-1. If he got past Epicenter I would have backed into a decent result.
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TGJB
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Great song. But a one off jump up is not the pattern of a guy doing something. Especially a jump up in the most scrutinized race in the year. Now, if you wanted to argue that’s why so many DON’T run their race...
Check out Famous Blue Raincoat, the Jennifer Warnes album where she covers Cohen’s songs, including Everybody Knows.
Cohen was supposedly at the Warren Beatty level with women.
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TGJB
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Fox is showing the CD races and Maggie is down there, she figures to have some comments about mud feet.
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TGJB
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For study purposes a pair is within a point either way.
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TGJB
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Good thing they gave us all those trick bets, otherwise everyone would be bored.
Also good they give us an hour between races Saturday to figure that stuff out.
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TGJB
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We have a new study for the seminar this year, it’s pretty cool.
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TGJB
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I don’t get to see what it spits out. It certainly would have flagged that Belmont day a few years ago.
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TGJB
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Apparently, the judge, during the trial, asked what a paddock is. Among other things.
Again— this is an accidental administration (they listed it as a medication they gave, to the CHRB), by a vet, of something that can’t move a horse up (hence it’s designation as a Class 2 drug). The horse had to be DQ’d, the rest is hyped up nonsense.
Also again— people who have been here since this site
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TGJB
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Probably the strongest Oaks, too soon on the division but it’s definitely up there.
By the way, Adare Manor is supposed to run in a stake Derby week, and how she runs is not irrelevant in handicapping the Derby.
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TGJB
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Last I heard Adare Manor is out. If it looks like we need to send others we will do it in a few days.
Highly unlikely anyone else is a contender given the strength of the field.
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TGJB
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If it’s another race that’s in doubt I do, yes. Otherwise no.
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TGJB
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Disregard the lengths and look at the figures/ Most of those horses are running tops and are underpays the next time.
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TGJB
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Review - 2 years ago
For a number of reasons— short fields, few dirt races at GP, sometimes only one two turn dirt race on the day, etc.— it was tough making figures this winter. (In general, the less data points you have, the tougher it is). I keep a list of the tricky races— the problem is you can’t know whether you need to change it until several have run back.
I went through the Derby horses, and a few came ou
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TGJB
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I’ve posted several times about this, and in general terms I agree with you.
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TGJB
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Specific to the Godolphin horses. Most of the published stats are for trainers, not owners, and that’s how the program we worked on with the Jockey club works, as does our data base— we don’t store owners, just trainers. But if someone has a way of looking at all their starters for the last 12 months I’d love to see it, just in conventional terms (win %).
Because they use different trainers th
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TGJB
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Every time I think I’m out, they pull me back in...
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TGJB
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And it’s worse than that. Appleby ran a bunch of entries and one of them had to
Lose.
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TGJB
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Red skyscrapers. Let me know next time one doesn’t run a top.
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TGJB
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Just saying’
You guys can keep worrying about Baffert.
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TGJB
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…. that this will be the strongest edition of the Ky. Oaks in history.
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TGJB
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Did one for the Fla and Arkansas Derbies and it's up now. Bigger one next weekend.
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TGJB
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