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It is the tail wagging the dog - 2 years ago
This has little to nothing to do with inefficiencies in the pools. This will still take place regardless of whether bots are banned or not. It is 99.99percent a reaction to the out of tote action. It is a case of the tail wagging the dog. As long as we have only one place to bet-into the exorbitant take out pools with laughable rebates and are playing vs the world-whom can bet into the poby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Fixed odds wagering - 4 years ago
Oddly they do already pay. Betfair for example has an agreement in place with numerous US entities while offering fixed odds and exchange betting to the Euros on US racing. Not only is the avg US punter paying the highest prices to bet but we get to subsidize the global racing world by shipping insane millions and millions in purses to foreign connections on BC day. Largely borne off of us paby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Fixed odds wagering - 4 years ago
The ultra abbreviated version. During the upcoming Breeders Cup- the avg euro can bet these races at numerous fixed odds bookies, several betting exchanges or the US tote. the avg Aussie/Asian can bet these races at numerous fixed odds bookies, several betting exchanges or the US tote. the avg American will be betting into only the US tote. it is beyond insanely ridiculous. Hopeby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
The Wicked North-1994 Big Cap-DeSormeaux sues over DQ and lost - 5 years ago
I did not read all the posts in between, not sure if this was mentioned or not. It was litigated they had experts w lasers etc.......... and lost. oddly I did not see any links to the actual court case but do recall that it took place.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: more trouble at SA - 5 years ago
I read the proposal-not only sounds great but seems cause to raise takeout to pay for it. I doubt anything would hardly change under these protocols. Send a few of the cheating beyond comprehension horsemen or the morally bankrupt vets to prison and see if that helps. I'm very confident that if I rigged races on a daily basis being bet upon nationwide that I would see the inside of aby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Santa Anita - 5 years ago
Ritvo-LOL. In some cases they could run on marshmallow................ Maybe they just saved the lives of the Baffert hopefuls?by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
-900/+180 - 6 years ago
A match race thru Laurel from elsewhere- but the point is BOL attracting anyone new with a positive IQ when have odds on offer such as that which of course is nothing more than a close up POV of the usurious takeout. and this is simulcasted from who knows where-LRL's costs are close to nil.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Late Odds Changes - 6 years ago
Why can't they just update the pools significantly more frequently? Wall St went from 15mins delay before the TGJB/FNN Score days to instant. Racing is still stuck in the stone age and in this regard it is to the benefit of a select few. It is odd to see the P4 in the article as the multi leg win bets do not usually reflect the depth of the plunge that the win. ex, tri and super pooby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: NEW JERSEY SPORTS BETTING-AIN'T DEAD YET - 6 years ago
It matters a lot in sport's futures. It sucks to tie up money for the length of a season if same bet can be made on credit. With some of them a case can be made one is better off putting the cash into a CD given the length of the season and the small profit margins in futures betting. My general opinion is the gambling tide raises and lowers all ships. There are very few losers if any hby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Justify to show - 6 years ago
Good job. I and I'm guessing others were fairly dumbfounded after the fact at the place and show.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Triple Crown prop out to over even money - 6 years ago
You'd think the horse was put up by DQ or something.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Nevada Sportsbooks avg hold 5.5% since 1984 - 6 years ago
There seemed to be some confusion when I last posted the avg nationwide slot hold around 9%. These take outs are 100% completely independent of the underlying costs. The slot machines companies, casinos and sports book take out is designed to maximize their bottom line. If they thought 20% take out would fly like it does in horse racing, the local slot machines would take 20%. After dby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
National fantasy sports hold like national slot machine hold is around 10% - 6 years ago
Yet horse racing is still trying to ram that square peg into that round hole of much higher than that takeout. About $320million in revenue on $3.2billion in handle from fantasy sports in the article below. ? Some portion of that would be going to racing if not for the prohibitive take out rates.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Navarro YouTube Video - 6 years ago
If I was on video boasting of juicing horses, illegal betting etc.... I would be worried about more than stall denial/fines etc......penalties being levied by the sport. This is felonious conduct in every jurisdiction in the nation.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Navarro YouTube Video - 6 years ago
Thanks for posting the video. My thoughts are along the lines of water is wet and I am skeptical that any bookie is taking on $20K of exposure out of the tote except from proven losers.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Thank You - 6 years ago
I have no idea of the context of this post. But some of you may find this book interesting: It's written by a Harvard educated chronicler of knowledge.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: But a teeny speck on their income statement - 7 years ago
Laurel did. Laurel's rebates are 16% of what they were 2yrs ago. It has been my experience and other's may have different experiences but Stronach tracks have done little but increase the take either nominally or by cutting rebates pretty much perpetually since they have gotten in the game. The last Stronach/Monarch dispute ended with the Monarch tracks cutting rebates by up to 85by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
But a teeny speck on their income statement - 7 years ago
Beyond the obvious usurious rates, this income is nothing to the overall Parx operation. They are hosing the avg horse player for no good reason beyond that is what they do. Although it seems impossible, this situation will get worse if Stronach gets his wish and gets control of the Parx racing operation as the rebates which are extremely generous thanks to the usurious takeout will vanish.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Re: Radio Interview on Betting Strategy - 7 years ago
ITP is a longtime professional, very knowledgeable and a good guy. He used to post on some of the other racing forums now he does twitter.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Actually less than 7.7% including player rewards - 8 years ago
It is not any kind of revelation but frequently some percent of people involved claim there is no proof that racing's hold is way too high. IMHO this is proof as the slot machine and casino companies could charge 20% or they could charge 2.5% on slots-I suspect they have invested resources and concluded that the optimal answer is in between 5-10%. This is in addition to things like thby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Aggregate US slot machine hold=7.7% - 8 years ago
on page seven at the above link it has a chart dating back to 1990. It is interesting after bottoming in 1996 at 5.96% that it is now up to 7.7%. Regardless, horse racing is WAY TOO HIGH. The math problem is the same, maximize revenue via a hold tax for a form of gambling entertainment via multi outcome events. The costs of providing that entertainment have no bearing on the optimby breakage1 - Ask the Experts
Proof - 8 years ago
IMVHO the fact that handle dramatically rises in almost every non jackpot carryover bet is concrete proof that lowered take out attracts significantly more handle. Likewise in the jackpot bets on forced pay days.by breakage1 - Ask the Experts