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Thoro-Graph
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So this type of cheating is worse than cheating by improperly using medications? Does not make much sense to me. She was trying to avoid faster competition, so she paid to have a peek at the entries, against the rules, yes, but a 3 year suspension which will have reciprocity in the whole country seems draconian to me.
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Mike C
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Spieberg has only 1 fast race, his sloppy track race, a huge new top, completely out of whack with his prior races. That is what concerns me about Spielberg. This pattern looks ripe for a bounce.
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Mike C
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I usually disregard very fast PRX numbers, unless the horse has run very fast other places too.
You are not alone.
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Mike C
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KD isn't running friday, next date is saturday.
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Mike C
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Cafe Pharoah is the 16 in the Unicorn, the 5 leads most of the way, but no one is close to the 16 approaching the wire, he was wide and moved up to be 2nd and took over in the stretch and just pulled away. 3 very impressive races.
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Mike C
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I remember last year there was a period where Castellano was winning all the grass stakes races, it made it difficult to bet those races, because the public started making Castellano's horse the favorite even when not deserved.
So While I agree that you should always be careful with Irad, you can get great value on faster horses, like yesterdays 7th race, Irad was on Chestertown, a nice
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Mike C
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Vekoma is interesting to me, his two year old top was very fast, and he has only just gotten back to it 1st time 4 year old. To me that means that there is more room for improvement, after all if he could run that number as a 2 year old, just normal growth and development should mean at 4 he should improve; Candy Ride horses generally improve about 6 points from 2 year old to 4 year old (See sire
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Mike C
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Great pattern, to me could improve a point or two after the multiple pairing of tops. Brief freshening, and race seems to set up for a closer, with at least a few speedy types in here.
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Mike C
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I like ete indien's line. even with the outside post, his speed is enough to get position, and if he can stalk, rather than set the pace I like him the best.
Having said that Independence Hall could be moving back towards his top, even though they were X's, his last 2 races are pointing in the right direction. It should take a 2 year old some significant time to recover from what is ab
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Mike C
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No Parole has a very interesting sheet to me. The $ sign from the first race, means that the connections knew they had a very fast horse and that he was going to run well that day; and he did! Very fast number, and his next 2 were not as fast, but the (h) symbol could mean that he just coasted through the stretch in both of those races. He is the fastest horse so far and is going to be a decent
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Mike C
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I also like Silver Slate, agree he is the horse to beat, but I also like #5 Moon over Miami- fastest horse who had a horrible trip in his last at GP, broke a step slow, and then was was carried out almost to the parking lot on the first turn, TG has 5W/4W, but also mentions 6W and 7W in the comments. After his fast AQ number in Dec a bounce could have been expected, so if he can work a decent tri
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Mike C
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La Feve does have a very nice line, and should run well today,but he has no real speed so I am worried that the trip will be a bad one from the inside, although I like the ML.
In the Pegasus, I like Mr. Freeze's line, ( and his ML) he has speed to get position, and could be rounding back to his top. I agree that this race is pretty wide open.
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Mike C
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With this big a field, and all the horses numbers close, I am going with longshots, how about the 1, 88-1 last out after being gelded, and ran a very competitive figure, going widest of all finishing 2nd. If he can work an inside trip? Interesting race.
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Mike C
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Bal Harbors last three races show an 0-2-X pattern? is he is ready to repeat his top ?
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Mike C
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It would be a shock to me if any horse other than the four you mentioned win this race. It seems from the sheets that those 4 are way faster that all the others in the race, on top of that, except for War Story, all of the fast ones ran their top in their last, Quip's was a much faster number for him, a big jump in the number, but he has speed and will not have to be wide on either turn; Pav
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Mike C
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I agree with much of your analysis, but i worry that with so much development in the past 5 months a bounce is getting more and more likely. I don't really know what to make of the short turnaround-Casse's record with this timing is about the same as his overall record. But he is the fastest horse, with a very strong line, so he will probably be my play as well. I think we may be pleas
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Mike C
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What makes you say that? His sheet looks ok, but nothing is telling me new top today. I think laughing fox is more likely to run a new top after pairing slight new tops in May. Having said that I like Tax. He weakened late in the Belmont, has speed and should get good position on the rail for both turns. Ran fast as a 2 year old, and with a good trip and a pair he will be tough to beat. Good trip
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Mike C
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The 5 Plus Que Parfait has a nice looking line, with small improvements and rest,and a sire that did well on turf. I am leery of master fencer, lost his only 2 grass races, and both were at relatively long odds. Chad's horses have not run that fast yet, and will all but one have to deal with the outside posts and wide trips.
If Spinoff likes the grass he could be tough, he has speed, and
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Mike C
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Agree with your analysis of this race, if Desert Ride can somehow get a decent trip she could be really tough. I used to be more afraid of big new tops, but with improving 3 year olds I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that she may love the synthetic surface, or is just maturing to a stronger faster horse right about now, and that new top is only temporary and she will get eve
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Mike C
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I agree with you on Alwaysmining. Great looking line, already almost fast enough, and only small move from 2 year old top, could move forward again. Also agree on Improbable, might think differently if he were going to have some value, but given the multiple efforts in a short time, I will gladly look to beat him.
Owendale's last was a pretty big jump, but his line looks solid, and he has
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Mike C
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the whole point of TG figures is because final times at different tracks cannot be accurately compared. Horses that run 1:08 at Del Mar for 6f can get a TG 4 (for example), and a horse at laurel can run 6f in 1:09 and get a 2, so the slower race is actually faster, and without TG you would have no way of knowing. So final times do not mean much to me. If you are old enough to remember the spring
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Mike C
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That would scare me from betting on her as the favorite, although even if she backs up a few points, she could still be the fastest. I will try to beat her with a longshot...Liora?, Chocolate Kisses?
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Mike C
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Always Dreaming jumped up over 5 points in the race before the derby and then moved forward one more point in the derby. Omaha Beach's 2year old races were on turf, but his first race as a 3 year old was on dirt and it was a fast number, but since that 1st dirt race he has moved forward 6.5 points, lots of development in a short time, so you have a point, it can be done, the forward moves we
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Mike C
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I just looked at the archives for the last 5 years, could not find a derby horse that did not back up after a -2(neg#) or faster in a derby prep race, only a couple-justify and american pharoah both improved after -1(neg#) races to new tops to win the derby. Three horses in 2015 had -2(neg#) preps, all faster than American Pharoah's preps, and all three, Frosted, Materiality and Upstart all
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Mike C
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There are some really nice patterns in this race, I think that Omaha Beach's last was too fast, we have seen only a few young 3 year olds go that low, and none of them pair up. Improbable's sheet looks a little better, but I agree with the consensus that his breeding is not for the derby. Tacitus, while fast enough has improved alot from his 2 year top, and I don't see him improvin
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Mike C
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Look at the #1 in that race, in the middle of his 3 year old year, he made a 7 1/4 point forward move, and then the next 2 races were pairs. Sometimes a horse who is lightly raced has not reached his peak, or maybe he is a late developer; in any event I would not assume a bounce for the #3. (it would not shock me
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Mike C
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what about the statement in the article
"There is little science that says Lasix actually does
that job, but quite a lot of science identifying Lasix
as a performance-enhancing drug."
Is this statement true? is there really only "little" scientific evidence that Lasix helps control bleeding? Is there " a lot" of science that says Lasix improves performance?
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Mike C
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the thorograph race shapes have Catch a thrill fastest for the first quarter, also the horse on the rail, Beachwood also shows a pretty quick first quarter..so I'm not sure the race will unfold as you suggest.
I like one of your contenders, Don't make fun. Although Castellano will keep the price down.
Good Luck!
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Mike C
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I like Manny Wah-he has enough speed to get a good trip and a return to his top today should be enough; PP14 may be too much for the favorite War of Will, even if he pairs up.
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Mike C
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