Show all posts by user
Thoro-Graph
Page 1 of 1 Pages: 1
Results 1 — 25 of 25
There are no full-time horseplayers beating the game without rebates. The best of them are about 95-98% ROI before rebates. I've spoken to most of the biggest players, and the one thing they all agree on is if they had to win playing into a 20% take (i.e. no rebates), their wagering volume would fall by 75% or more, and at that level the compensation isn't worth the enormous amount of
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Barry, my condolences as well. You guys did a great job with him throughout his way too short career.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Yeah, your right about SS, but it doesn't happen much. And it certainly is not accurately reflected in the odds. It's why my personal ROI in turf routes is so much higher than in every other type of race.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
I don't have that data but I can tell you from studies I've done pressers from post 10+ going 2Ts on 8F tracks lose on average 5 paths. I guarantee it's at least that from outside posts in the Derby. Even a stone cold closer gets the worst of it. You can't exactly cut over 18 paths to tuck in, unless of course you want to drop 20 lengths out of it.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
And Elliot Walden who uses TG and understands ground loss chose posts 3,4 and 5. Horses like Dunkirk are giving up on average 6 lengths given the running style and the post. Pressers from outside post are gigantic underlays be it the 1st Saturday in May or a mile claimer on a 7f grass course.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
And yet...
Some trainer with a choice of the rail or 2 hole will select post 18 again 'so he can stay out of trouble'. Happens just about every year.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Jim:
My memory isn't what it used to be, but I think that last race was won by a horse named Houston Astro, a trainee of David Bernstein that paid like $40 or so. The PK6 player in question ended up with two 5 of 6's instead of $4.4mm.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
This isn't my worse beat, it's THE worst beat ever. I can't imagine anyone can ever relate a story that's worse, poker,sports, horses, etc.. I actually happened to see this transpire as I was watching the SA races on TVG, having bought a small ticket with my betting partner. On some of this, I'm going from memory but I've still got the PPs and an old story from the D
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Smart move for Zito to stay home. Pure dirt both sides, I don't think Nick ever had any intention to run on synthetic irregardless of spacing.
So is he HOY if he wins the Cigar or the Clark? Sounds nuts, but given this weekend's results not impossible, though i think it goes to Zenyatta.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
The Thropattern stats for first turf are listed as roughly 18/19/24/39. Do you have any data handy on what it would be for 3YO's vs 4YO's vs 5+? I have to believe a horses chances of running well on turf are inversely correlated to age. If he hasn't tried it by age 5 it's probably because his trainer(s) think he wouldn't run well over it.
It would be nice to know th
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Thought he was live last time and played him pretty good at a gazillion to one. Second would have been a big score.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
If she were mine, I'd wait until September (as opposed to August) to run. I'd be happier with six weeks into the Breeder's Cup rather than 9 or 10. I wouldn't run her off an August 'till October layoff for all the marbles. I'm all for spacing, but I think you run the risk she's short coming off a 9 week layoff. JMHO.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
This morning. There are threads on the Pace Advantage board.
I am sure with your sources you can find out more than I did.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
No names from me but just look at a certain trainer's stats at MTH. I've heard blood was drawn from every horse in the trainer's barn, but that I cannot confirm yet.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Is it possible, even likely that they institute a whole battery of tests and the offenders just find something else they are not testing for?
Every little bit of testing helps but there are still some ridiculous winning %'s in jurisdictions where they are testing (places like steroid free PA). We have come a long way from the days of "elephant juice" and OSB.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
I am waiting for the day when the trainer says
"he ran three big figures in a row and two in the past month, and when they're set to bounce it's hard to quantify how large that bounce will be."
Probably not in my lifetime.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Even when you're right you can be wrong. I was convinced BB's feet were killing him , but couldn't find Da'Tara (completely whiffed on that lone speed thing) and ended up 2-3-4-5. I was screwed when Casino Drive scratched because that horse has been lame for 2 weeks.
I heard that Mall like the winner but I don't know if he ended up playing him.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
The morning clocker report had Kentucky Bear. Look at the attachment. the comment said:
Pyro has never trained well over poly and is a big underlay. We believe they’re just looking to leg him up for the Derby. Both Pletcher horses, Cowboy Cal and Monba have trained brilliantly and should run well, as should Halo Najib. We’ve gotten a big push on Kentucky Bear who bled through Lasix in Flori
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Miff,
He's got a small foot about a 2 or 2 1/2 on a scale of 1 to 5 where 3 is average. The typical stakes winners at CD have a hoof size of 3 1/2 or greater. IMHO, just because he won a maiden race race going 6F at 2 doesn't mean he can compete in this class going a distance of ground at 3. He has struggled over poly throughout his career. While this was his first race on the su
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
I said it before on the Pace Advantage board a week ago. I posted it this morning from our clocker and posted real-time info from the paddock. You can check it out there. He still has a solid line he just doesn't like poly and might not like CD. Run him in the Preakness and he probably goes forward and wins.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Pyro didn't have the confirmation to run over Poly and Asmussen knew it. The horse hadn't worked well over the surface any of the times my partner saw him and he came into the paddock wearing some expanded form of front shoes (laden with acrylic) in an attempt to give him a bigger foot and more traction.
With his little deer feet he is unlikely to run much better at CD than he did a
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
<I hate his chances at the price he'll be on Derby day.>
How about the 20-1 you could have gotten at some spots in Vegas before yesterday's race. I didn't, but have friends that did. At that price you can bet the rest of the field on Derby Day and make money.
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Ankle Chips to keep Repent out of Derby.
See Blood Horse Link
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
There is a very logical way to tie pace ( be it early speed on dirt, or late speed on grass) into the process. Mall references a very good Wired arcticle. The logic is all all there. Start with the concept that when horses bounce they typically do it in the final fraction and go from there. Unfortunately, its a lot more complicated in practice (lots of math) than it is in theory...
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts
Bends are rear shoes with 1/4" (typically) cleat like protrusions on the ends that are employed to provide better traction. They are a watered down form of the now illegal turndown shoes that had been employed with much success in NY (and elsewhere).
There are a number of front and rear shoes that can be uses of race day to provide better traction (however not all trainers employ them, a
by
Ian Meyers
-
Ask the Experts