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Thoro-Graph
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Article on the Bloodhorse about the Cali stewards "investigating" how a Mullins horse showed such dramatic improvement and was bet down heavily while stepping up in class.
Could TG post the figs for this horse? Probably another non-issue, especially given the stretchout and surface and equipment changes, but who knows. Maybe "the juice is loose".
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OK, I'll bite. What horses is Harthill associated with in this year's derby?
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Mike, you are totally missing the point with ground loss. Those late pace figure you refer to do not take ground loss into effect, and yes, the late pace figure would include most of the last turn (race length minus 6f at races over 1 mile), so the last 3f in the case of the SA derby.
For the sake of argument, lets say that if a horse runs the last 3f (1980 feet) in 35 seconds (I know they we
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Chris said:
"I have to believe that he and Bailey are smart enough not to try those tactics at Kee but you never know. DD may just be one of those horses that does not like to run inside of other horses"
Jerry Bailey said (after the race):
"It was a good effort," said Bailey. "Bob (Baffert) told me that he (Domestic Dispute) needs to be outside, but you can't give u
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I have no problem at all with the idea of uniformity between all tracks, that is a tremendous concept, (both in payoffs and meds). But Beyer submits in his article that $2 payoffs for all exotics should be that uniformity and that simply does not make sense. It should be based off the minimum wager. Horseplayers are not so simple-minded that they have to have all payoffs shown on the same $$ a
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Chris, I see where you are coming from also, but I think Baffert is right on the money where he asks for uniformity. It's quite apparent that he was using the same meds he always has been for this horse and then suddenly hit a state where he had to change his methods and it didn't work out quite right because he wasn't used to working like that.
To respond to Vegas, I think the f
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Chris,
I've always known you to be a pretty bright guy and very fair in your analysis, but the spin you have put on this situation is wrong. If you read Baffert's statement, he says: "The deal is, clenbuterol is legal in every state, but almost all of them have different levels on withdrawal times," Baffert said. "In this case, we did everything we could to comply with t
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You guys are leaving out a pretty important part of the analysis, track bias. The homestretch favored the rail almost to the point of absurdity yesterday, and most of last week. If you notice Funny Cides stretch run, he falls way back and then is suddenly miraculously making up ground by the end of the race. This was not an isolated incident, 7500 claimers have been doing the same thing all we
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I wish I could say I'm surprised, but I'm really not. I will say this, Sam Houston is one of the most predictable tracks out there and if use of this is rampant, it isn't yielding many cases of unexplainable results. With racing at Santa Anita completely falling apart this year (short fields, 6.5 turf races playing completely differently than years past) SH has easily been the tr
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Chris, can't argue with any of your logic. DD was the only bet I actually placed, mostly on Baffert's history.
I will have to disagree on Saintly Look, he reminds me a lot of EasyFromTheGetGo last year. Great line moving into Feb, but went nowhere from there. I'm fully on board with the logic around not going faster than 6 as a 2 yr old, but I think you MUST have went faster th
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Speaking of half-wits, you are obviously too stupid to realize that the TG site was not the problem, nor did their customer service have anything to do with it. There was a large virus spreading thru the entire internet on saturday which crippled internet routers and blocked traffic to many locations, not just thorograph. You and Ragozin's product are made for each other, and next time get
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Jerry, let me start by saying that I have used your product for almost 5 years now and I think you have a far superior product (the figures) and I am fully supportive of almost all the positions you take vs. Ragozin.
That being said, you should take a much closer look at the Santa Anita analysis before patting yourself on the back. Nick may be an exteremly intelligent individual and have tons m
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You guys are wasting your time trying to fight those Saratoga crowds. By far the best scene in horse racing is opening day at Del Mar. The "scenery" there is hands-down the best collection of beautiful people you will ever see at any racing event, blows Keenland out of the water and that's saying alot. I don't plan on missing one the rest of my life. But either way, everyo
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Happily Unbridled looks good here, look at the way Unbridled horses improve from 3 to 4. That small top last out was a good sign, look for further improvement today at a price. Good luck to all...
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Wow! I finally got a positive ROI! With scratches and my no action pick 3, I'm calculating $1164 for my total. Pretty shocked with the race, and feel guilty about Proud Citizen, although it sounds like he will be alright. Before the race I told a friend I would not be surprised to see him break a leg during the race. Wasn't that bad, but he went off in an ambulance. That's ab
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Pick 3 Race 8 - $20
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Outstander/Warners
Strut the state/Beat Hollow
Wisemans Ferry/Perfect Drift
$160 total
Race 7
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$200 win Babae
$20 Quinella Babae/all
$50 Exacta TatesCreek/Stylish over Babae
$500 total (without scratches)
Race 6
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$200 win Late Carson
$200 total
Race 5
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$100 win Jarf
$10 Exacta 1,2,7,9 over Jarf
$140 total
$100
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Two-time horse of the year Cigar shocked the racing world today with his admission that he used performance-enhancing steroids during most of his illustrious racing career. "With all the controversy swirling around steroid use in baseball, I thought it was about time I come clean", said Cigar thru the use of an equine translator.
"I was a so-so horse until a vet came to me and
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Well that's a great thought David, so how do you measure this constant effect of moisture? What is the scientific formula that Ragozin uses? Not to beat a dead horse, but is someone taking soil samples? As JimP mentioned, is there a formula that should be incorporated to adjust variants based on the amount of moisture. Intuitively, I agree that there probably is, but what proof is there
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My god, I can't believe my eyes, but here is this topic again. Patent says "your methodology makes certain unverified assumptions about equine behavior". OK, maybe I am really dense here, but somebody PLEASE explain to me what makes Ragozins assumptions any more verifiable or sceientific in nature? What "carbon dating test" of the Ragozin methodology are you referring
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Left Bank looks vulnerable here, he has always reacted to negative numbers in the past and this was only 2+ weeks ago. Plus add the weight, I think he runs about a 1 here.
Voodoo is definitely the most intriguing. Got back to his 3yr old top 2nd out at 4 and now returns off rest, gets weight. He looks like the key here. I do agree about Wake at Noon, has the 2nd best looking line. Both sh
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Alydar, you stole the thought right out of my head before I even had a chance to write it...
Jason L said: "But at least with Ragozin, I have some comfort that the numbers are based on a consistent scientific foundation and not one person's opinion."
As Alydar already said, there is no scientific basis for assuming a track stays the same for an entire card, even under "norma
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Wow, I don't know if everyone on that other board is just dillusional, but I am just astonished at the lack of logic involved in any of the arguments made for the other camp.
Point 1:
In a post I'm sure will soon be taken down, one reader wonders why TG and Rags differ and is answered by JR's whimsical comment that TG "blew it" by having a 7 point jump in the SPT race th
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Yeah and I also read that he is leaving NY at midnight at Friday for the 4 hour van trip and will get in to PIM at 4am. Do horses sleep on these vans? Seems like a strange time to be moving him around, twice in the middle of the night before a big race. Is this normal?
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Wow, was just reading on the other board that the other guys don't have USST breaking thru his 2yr old top yet??? Well, there is at least one glaring difference between the 2 preakness figures, TG has him besting his 2yr top by almost 6 pts.
Any comments on this JB? I know your figures are different from time to time, but this seems abnormally different. Are they just making some of t
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Obviously I'm not Mike D but...
Even if you throw out the 1, he still ran a 3 previous to that which would still make him the fastest non-derby horse in the field (other than Table Limit who is unproven and extremely questionable over a mile).
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Hi Mark,
Suprised you don't think more of Straight Gin, do you only use pedigree analysis for the derby and not for the Preakness? Go For Gin offspring rarely have trouble with added distance, and the average winning distance at dirt STAKES RACES for both the Sire and Dam are above 8.5 F according to Dr. Steve (who I think is a quack, but thanks for the data). And for those who do like dos
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Good points, and yes this is a stretch, but I am definitely willing to throw the TP race out given it was 2 weeks after his top and off the ship from FLA. In the Bluegrass, he was 4th or 5th most of the way, never closer than 3 lengths from the lead. That spells big trouble on that ring, I imagine they just gave up.
With almost a guarntee of some level of moisture in the PIM track, this raci
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KY meds - 22 years ago
Chris may not have to worry about programming that "Lukas in KY" factor into his model after all. LOL!! Will we ever get to a point where they have to disclose EVERYTHING a horse is taking before a race? Anything short of that seems extremely unfair.......
KTA Board Opposes Kentucky Medication Policy
by Tom LaMarra
Date Posted: 5/16/02 12:11:06 PM
Last Updated: 5/16/02 12:11:06 PM
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Can't argue much with JBs analysis, but I do have a couple differnet points to add. Here's how the race shapes up to me:
Not Good Enough
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Menacing Dennis
Equality
EasyFromGitGo
Magic Weisner
Booklet
Big Bounce
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Table Limit
Proud Citizen
Little Bounce
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War Emblem
Medaglia Doro
Harlans Holiday
Pair/Forward with a shot to win
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Couple of comments...
Pace: I also believe there will be a much faster pace and this works against WE. His pattern suggest a bounce is coming and this may be just the factor to trigger it. But even a 3pt bounce could put him in the money with a rail trip, so he must be considered
Lukas: PC has not shown the ability to pair up yet, so I'm thinking he may be one of those horses who is eit
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