Show all posts by user
Thoro-Graph
Sorry. Misunderstood. I am certainly not DPatent. DPatent told me that I was foolish for suggesting that BB would be 4W around the first turn.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Chuckles.
I thought I gave pretty detailed evidence of my exact wager and thought process that went into my Super.
I can send you a PDF of my ticket if you have any further questions.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
I was just going to post the same.
So much for the California Class of 2008, P-Dub.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Completely agree. Met him at the Breeders Cup draw last year, and was very impressed by his willingness to mingle with the crowds. Definitely spent more time talking to me than he needed to.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
I hit the blanking super.
I still can't believe it.
Would not have happened without TG.
$1 Super as follows
10-20 w/
5-9-10-20 (easy so far, those are the 4 choices) w/
2,5,8,9,10,16,20 w/
2,4,5,8,9,10,12,16,20
$180 turns into $29K
Would have tossed Big Brown except for the fact that his TG number was so good that he could win with a bounce combined with Chuckle
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Unfortunately, despite keying Proud Spell, I tossed Little Belle. A Pure Clan key wasn't such a great call.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
I thought you were going to draw a comparison between Col John and Country Star.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Again, that assumes he can clear the field in a straight line prior to the clubhouse turn. I don't think he can, and if he does, he's gone too fast.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
In today's NY Post, Tricky says he expects BB to go off at 8/5.
Personally, I do not see any way for BB to clear the field by the clubhouse turn. However, he is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. If he does, he will probably run the 1/2 faster than Songandaprayer. If he doesn't, I expect him to be 4-5W.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
In Beyer's chat, he says he is tossing both BB and CJ.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Good luck to you, too. I am operating under the "guess" that Pyro is a 9F horse like CQ, and will not exhibit the same closing kick at 10F when forced to use himself earlier in the race to stay within striking distance of a faster pace.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Pyro's 3YO figs look very similar to a lot of horses that will be 3X his odds.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
One can make many of the same arguments for "2" that many are currently making for CV.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
If he wasn't the slowest horse in the race, you make a compelling argument.
An argument that would have had you tearing up Scat Daddy tickets last year.
I may not be able to pick the winner, but I have been pretty adept in picking horses that are most likely to finish last over the years: High Limit and Cowtown Cat come to mind. I think Cool Coal Man is a strong contender to finish
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Correct Jerry. A good friend of mine, and my favorite tavern in the city.
It's Sandy Koufax's local.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
To your point, didn't Big Truck fire a bullet on the poly before the Blue Grass?
This Kentucky Derby looks like the most wide open field I have ever seen. The infield drunks may be betting BB-CJ exactas, but there are some very live longshots that are training well, have two year old foundations and have run on dirt before. I would be shocked if the chalk runs 1-2.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
I guess a simpler question for you two, and it is meant to be straightforward:
Are you suggesting that the TG figure for ToE in the Wood is wrong?
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Since this is a TG board, please tell me specifically what troubles you about ToEs pattern or figs.
When you say you agree with Miff, are you stating that you also believe (as the infield drunks will) that the Beyer numbers are the most accurate way to gauge ToEs Wood performance?
Because if you believe the TG numbers, ToE has never gone backwards and looks like he may pair his Wood. If
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
My visual reaction to the Wood was to throw out all of the horses based on the slow crawl home after the blistering first 1/2. The final 3/8s was a waltz, and ToE was life and death to get by a game but obviously laboring War Pass. On top of that, Prado is jumping off to ride a poly specialist. However, after reviewing his TG pattern and Tagg's last 90 day figs, I am starting to rethink my i
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
I reviewed your contribution to this thread, and while Cal horses have hit the board, other than Fu Peg every other top Cal horse (meaning the lowest odds horse from California) in the last 10 years has not run to his odds in the Derby.
And at least FuPeg came east for his final prep, whereas this years hot Cali contender is choosing to prep exclusively on synthetic before shipping east.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Good point.
Haskin and Beyer are still counting their money from the AP Warrior, Brother Derek, Point Determined, Bob and John superfecta that emerged from the "strongest California crop in years."
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Personally, I think a play against Brown just got worse. The chances of him getting hooked and cooked by War Pass is out the window.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Ouch. TW ran more like Cowtown Cat than Bluegrass Cat.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Key the horse that TG analysis says "probably won't improve now" or "probably won't jump forward."
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
If today was any indication, Kodiak Kowboy quits like a cheap claimer around the far turn, despite any "analysis" suggesting otherwise.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
I'm in same boat. Threw out 3 winners based on TG analysis today.
My buddy who is a Rags worshipper killed it today by keying Wowwowwow and Corinthian.
WTF.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
I just got through watching 5 hours of "The Works" that I had Tivo'd. Did anyone see Z Humor's Monday work at Belmont? He basically quit in the stretch while working with one of Mott's filly's, Sunday Holiday. The work was so bad that the TVG crew was discussing whether Mott would scratch him. His TG figs look pretty good and Mott's barn has been extremely ho
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts
Darn. I was throwing her out with that PP and her numbers and was hoping she'd take 2nd money.
by
MonmouthGuy
-
Ask the Experts