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Thoro-Graph
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Nicely done sir, I hope you pressed the winner of the 9th very hard on your tickets.
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grinder
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Getting your hand slapped with a nominal fine for a bad test by a state regulator is one thing, but when the DA from the Southern District of NY is coming for you - look out. Certainly a shot across the bow for the rest of the usual suspects out there.
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grinder
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A few thoughts on today's card at Gulfstream:
Race 3 - Carotari (6-1 ML) - While he is a about a point slower on TG than SS or TW - I believe this horse could be sitting on a big number in his first start as a 4 year-old. He appears to be dead game, as two races back at Churchill he was off two lengths slow and rushed up to duel in a fast pace but got nailed at the wire. He's well dr
by
grinder
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I see that two runners out of her last at GPW on November 15th have come back on the dirt. Any best guess now on her last number? thanks
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grinder
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Frank, I always enjoy reading your posts, wish you and richiebee would post more often. I haven't finished handicapping the GP card yet, but you might want to have another look at the other Chad in the Ft. Lauderdale for inclusion on your ticket.
Here is my trip note for Instilled Regard's last race at Aqueduct, "BOTTLED UP INSIDE TO TRN - ANGLED OFF RAIL STR - GOOD CLOSE GALLOP
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grinder
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I think the Chad runners look interesting in this race. Of these, I prefer Network Effect.
He ran some fast TG numbers as a 2 year old, and his last race at Aqueduct he posted a small incremental top in his first start as a 3 year old.
I think he may have another forward move in him yet, and even a pair of his last TG # has him as fast as the M/L favourites at the assigned weights.
Good
by
grinder
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Woodbine Stewards' report from yesterday:
"Race 3, Bold Venture Stakes, Stewards’ inquiry, start #2 Pink Lloyd, pops the doors prior to the starter releasing the field. Determined to have received an unfair start, complete refund, advantaged at the start, rest ok"
by
grinder
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Given the current weather forecast of significant rain tonight in the Toronto region, the turf course will probably have some give to the ground for tomorrow's turf races.
As GS will be carrying co-top weight in the race, even if she pairs her last effort, she could be vulnerable in here. Also, based on her race on a soft-turf course at Belmont last year, she may not like a less than f
by
grinder
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Yup. Given the 44.3 and 108.1 fractions, the pace dynamics of the race also didn't help. That said, it really didn't matter as GS was loaded off her previous top from the prior week. Taking a quick look at the top three finishers (at the weights and maybe a 1/2 point of ground between them),it appears that she about paired her last (within a point)?
by
grinder
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A turf stakes race with some tight TG #s, so ground saving/loss will be a big deciding factor as always. Dr. Edgar is dead game, doesn't need the lead and should save all the ground into the first turn. If the human anchor can give him a decent ride and sit off Gidu's early pace, he could get a great trip. He would be a square price at 6-1. I will protect under the #3/#4. Good Luck.
by
grinder
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I just took a look at yesterday's Saratoga analysis and noted that the author selected the 41-1 first past the post winner on top in the 4th race. This was the worst takedown at NYRA that I have seen in quite awhile. Even Andy Serling, who is usually very supportive of the stewards' decisions did not agree with the DQ. I assume that the rest of the author's day would have been spen
by
grinder
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Thanks guys - it was a good day. Largest crowd at Fort Erie that I can remember.
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grinder
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Later today I will drive about 45 minutes down the highway to my home track in Fort Erie for the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. Back in the day, the track was part of the Ontario Jockey Club circuit "A" meet and like Saratoga, the Hooray Henry set would congregate there every August for racing.
As the track is only a stone's throw from the Peace Bridge to Buffalo, the
by
grinder
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Looks like it will be hot and humid in the North today, as such, keep and eye out for the watering trucks on the track today. As they will occasionally water the Tapeta to keep the track from getting too loose. After receiving water or rain, the track tightens up and can be much kinder to speed.
A few thoughts on the Plate contenders:
Desert Ride- (8-1 M/L) she won the Oaks 3 weeks ago wit
by
grinder
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What may be less well known in the US about Belinda Stronach was that she was formerly a member of Canada's House of Commons in 2005.She was also in a common-law relationship with Peter MacKay, a high profile member of the Conservative Party in Canada. Here is an excerpt from the Globe and Mail dated May 19, 2005, regarding the end of their relationship:
"On Monday night, Belinda Str
by
grinder
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Without question -both groups will be screaming in the scenario you presented. However, the bettors will be demanding the reinstatement of Lasix, whereas, PETA would state that this outcome supports their position that horses are being "abused" and racing should be banned.
Horse racing is clearly at the crossroads here. Even though it appears that an agreement between the respective
by
grinder
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Point taken about performance figures earned at Parx. However, the last out figure earned by Axelrod (which was not run at Parx) is still faster than any figures run by the aforementioned runner. And as he will be a better price, I will be keying him. Good Luck.
by
grinder
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You stated the following: "Horses are not even physically mature until 5 or 6. They can then maintain their physical condition for several more years."
The authors of the study I referenced stated the following, when summarizing their findings: "We find that a typical horse’s peak racing age is 4.45 years."
Further, their study (Table 4) found that the average 4 1/2 ye
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grinder
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Well Bob, here is a link to an independent study that does not appear to support your unsubstantiated assertion.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/
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grinder
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Even with an outside draw - she is a clear overlay at 10-1 with 20 minutes to post.
by
grinder
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According to my TG number-based odds model, here are the runners that I believe have a significantly higher probability of winning than is indicated by their respective morning lines:
Filly Sprint - Golden Mischief, Chalon
Dirt Mile - Firenze Fire
Sprint - Promises Fulfilled
Mile - Oscar Performance
Distaff - Midnight Bisou
Turf - Channel Maker, Robert Bruce
Classic - Mind Your Biscuits,
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grinder
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One of the best posts that I have read on this board in a long time. As such, I nominate this post for a permanent home in the TG archives. Great work - much appreciated.
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grinder
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And the beat goes on - twitter post from Mike Welsch re Saratoga 8th race double DQ: "Of all the dubious decisions here this meet that last one may have been the worst yet. Final Frontier should have come down, Strike Me Down would not have been involved if FF hadn't forced Hizeem out into his path to create the additional bumping."
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grinder
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I did have a dog in the fight, and the DQ actually worked out better for me. However, I am shocked that they took the #3 down, as I have a seen a lot worse than that in NY stand. The level of inconsistency by the NYRA stewards these days is truly beyond words.
by
grinder
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I would not ignore Verve's Tale here as she could be sitting on a good one. She likes the course and trip and gets a very favourable shift in the weights. Good Luck.
by
grinder
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I agree with you about the #7 as she would seem to have a good chance of getting back to her top from last year. However, I would be surprised if you get better than 5-1. Also an interesting pick 5 sequence today ending with the Queens Plate. I assume that the Tapeta will be watered again throughout the day,as it is going to be a scorcher up here. Good Luck.
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grinder
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While I agree that most of these winners were favored, closers were at a clear disadvantage at Pimlico yesterday. The winning margins of some of the winners also indicates the existence of a speed bias.
To avoid an unsupported assertion, here is a summary of yesterday's chart results for the dirt races at Pimlico:
Sprints - % of winners either on or within 1 length of lead at 2nd call
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grinder
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