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Thoro-Graph
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It was amusing listening to Beyer trying to explain the slow fig on the Byk radio show today. He said all the races before and after the derby were fast. I guess he forgot the part about the wind dying down after the derby and the track being watered.........
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jp702006
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On more than one occasion I have learned the hard way that, if I write something down, bet it! I feel your pain.
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jp702006
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Agree! Lets hope he comes out of the race well and has another good one left in the tank.
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jp702006
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I have no idea who ran a faster figure. If I had to venture a guess I would say Curve and possibly Danza. I am not implying CC doesn't deserve the best fig, only that I would not be surprised if another horse received a better number. I made great bank wheeling CC today because I thought he was a fast horse. I am not suggesting he isn't so cool your jets.
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jp702006
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I am not saying it was fast by any means, but Smarty ran slower in his derby.
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I would not be shocked if others received a better number than CC for the Derby. He had an amazing trip and made the most of it.
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jp702006
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I like Curve. Hopefully he moves forward unlike Golden Soul last year.
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jp702006
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If samraat would have dropped in behind CC instead of stalking outside, maybe he hits the board today. It would have given me a few more winners on my tickets.
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jp702006
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Not saying the # was way off in any way. To my novice eyes, I would have thought they would have been reversed with CC getting the 0 and Vicar the 1. All water under the bridge now. Curve ran a great race and made my tickets, thank you for your insight. If Samraat could have ran 2nd or 3rd, I would have been very lucky and had $7 in tri's. I look forward to your sheets for the Preakness.
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First, I want to give props to the staff at thoro-graph. Without the analysis on Curve, I would not have been using him. I was fortunate to hit a $4 trifecta and a $5 exacta wheel because I used Commanding Curve. A couple of weeks ago I called into question the # CC received in the SA derby vs what Vicar ran in the LA derby. Anyone care to comment now? I thought it was not a good representation o
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jp702006
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Thanks for the update. I am a regular listener so I enjoy the info/opinions of you and the guests. 60% isn't a bad hit rate, very small sample though.
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jp702006
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On the Steve Byk radio show today, Jeremy Plonk offered an interesting stat. Over the last 10 years, horses that won the derby were a combined 17/23 in March. His hypothesis being that March preps were more important than April. More food for thought..........
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jp702006
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Jerry,
I am not entirely disagreeing with you, but without constructive debate, there can be no enlightenment.I think the hard part for many, myself included, is all of us have watched the preps. Some of us have viewed them multiple times. When what we see with our own two eyes does not match what the numbers tell us, it is difficult to reconcile the two. This is where the healthy debate comes
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jp702006
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Interesting. Why does every talking head on tv, columnist and trainers make such a big deal out of being stuck down inside in the derby? The 20 post use to have the same perception until Big Brown won in 2008.
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jp702006
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I cannot remember the exact website I read the data on, it was either drf or bloodhorse, but since the advent of the 20 horse fields it was something like 1 for 19? I read the article by one of their contributors, and this was perhaps 2008 or 2009. Please correct me if I am wrong.
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jp702006
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I don't entirely disagree with you. However, the 1 hole is not a good place to be in the 20 horse field. The stats back that up. Are you going to the Derby or cup this year?
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jp702006
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miff,
I know all about the soft money in the pools. Anytime you can get $4 or more to show on logical horses it is remarkable. I always play the tri's and pick 4's. This year I may venture into the superfecta market. Someone is going to make money on this years Derby, might as well be us on this forum:)
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jp702006
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Miff,
The draw is everything. All of us are debating the merits of figs and the speed of certain races and it could all be for naught after the draw. As of right now, I am leaning towards CC with a few others underneath. And I am somebody who never bets the favorite in the derby!
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jp702006
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Miff,
I posted a question/observation last night regarding Vicar vs CC and got no replies. However, Jerry addressed it somewhat in some of his dialogue with you. Am I to deduct from some of your posts that you are in the CC camp? I am just curious. I do enjoy your posts.
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jp702006
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I purchased the early Derby/Oaks package and was shocked by some of the numbers. Maybe those with more expertise can enlighten me. After watching all of the preps multiple times, there is no way Vicar is as fast as CC. However, that is exactly what the figs are telling me. Does anyone else think that the La Derby was as fast of a race as the Sa Derby, or for that matter the San Felipe? I would ha
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