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Thoro-Graph
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Page McKennney going to scratch now I just heard in the 7th. Thats brutal. Stanford and Page now. Noble Bird big fav but I don't like. Brutal....
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Chas04
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If we couldn't laugh, we would all going to go insane.
--Jimmy Buffett
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Chas04
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HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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Chas04
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Rob,
Thanks. That was a great explanation and makes a lot of sense.
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Chas04
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Good point. Very early on...but that really could be huge. Will effect everything.
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Chas04
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Good feeling its a complete slop fest like last year. 85% downpours forecast showing. Wow. Changes things up. Would think with all the money on Exag you may get much better value on Nyquist.
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Chas04
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Also - What about factoring in how much AP was pushed in the stretch... or no? We all remember the articles after last years Derby. Victor whipped AP somewhere between 29-33 times in the race. Most of this occurred in that grueling stretch to get past Firing Line. Dortmund and Firing Line were whipped 11 and 9 times during that same stretch run. I have no idea if whipping that much pushes a horse
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Chas04
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This again kinda goes back to original point. I have a friend who boxed the whole field in 2006. We all laughed at him before the race and told him it was a dumb idea. Anything can happen in a horse race....stepping on a pin, etc like u said as well. These are rare occurrences though and I don't like to bet on rare occurrences. If a race is run fairly who will win and why. Thats how I like t
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Chas04
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Valid points.
I WANT to beat him....and if I think it can happen I will bet accordingly.
Right now I just don't see it. Still a week to go tho.
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Chas04
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He doesn't have to run as fast...thats the point. He can regress and still win. They posted all the Raggie numbers and he got a 3. Thats faster then AP. I certainly don't think he is the Pharoah either...but that is a serious fig. He can regress in the Preakness and still win. If he completely falls apart of course anyone could win...but I don't see it. He jogged 2 miles today and
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Chas04
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Whats another set of circumstances? The horses he's going to run against next Saturday are not fast. Slow animals. He's a fast animal. Simple to me.
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Chas04
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touche. they all go down its just being right when they do. this one looks to me tough as nails tho.
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Chas04
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I just knew this was coming. LOL Gotta love it. Just like everyone last year was wrong for playing AP on top every race as well. GL to ya Joe though...I certainly won't be.
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Chas04
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Great post. Of course he is not AP but I think this horse can win the Triple Crown. Not just win it but win by 10+. I really hope we don't see absurd Pletcher and Baffert horses with great TGs cases being made that didn't run in the Derby. Nyquist would run them into submission.
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Chas04
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I will never in million years understand the love for a horse like this. I was wrong a LOT today....but not on this one. Man o man just terrible in every way. Terrible Derby trainer, TERRIBLE Wood, terrible draw, terrible pedigree and terrible run.
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Chas04
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Mike, I am no expert by any means & defer to long time readers like urself. It truly baffled me but then the bomb maiden was right there 2. Interpretation going forward is the key im struggling with. Thx for the perspective on it .
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Chas04
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The Rags gave Outwork an 8 for Tampa and an 11 for his Wood. Absolutely huge regression.
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Chas04
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You really think deep down with a gun towards your heard AP can lose????
Any intelligent person knows anything can happen in life and we equate for that.........
But AP can't lose unless he gets hurt or eased. Its that simple.
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Chas04
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The odds will definitely will be incredible if you want to bet anyone else. Just like in the Belmont and every race he runs in until he's retired. How can anyone make a logical argument that he's going to lose? Did you see that work yesterday??? The only thing that beats him is a Barbaro type situation...and I hope to g-d that doesn't happen to any horse in a race.
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Chas04
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the pharoah is not only winning the travers but going to put on a show for the ages. get your popcorn ready!
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Chas04
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Well I can't deny a lot of my comments are silly....especially winning by 12-15 vs serious horse flesh. But I am happy to see that your done insisting AP is a "value bet against", I respect your opinion on Upstart and have been playing him since I saw him in person last year. The huge figs early is an easy one. Its all out the window anyway because he wants no part of AP in the Tra
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Chas04
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Thought Upstart put up one heck of an effort off the layoff. When your running vs a super freak its tough to compare. Like him still in the solid 2nd slot in the Travers 12-15 lengths behind AP of course. Still think he's more physically talented then Texas Red & Frosted.
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Chas04
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I'll embrace that Tread. Most of the people on ESPN are famous because of their (---) qualities.
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Chas04
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Covello I am with you 1000%!!! Can't wait for the Belmont. Tickets just got here!
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Chas04
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Wonder if Frank whoever is going to come on here again and rip me like he did after the Derby for saying I singled and hit AP in everything again. But this time a $20 pick 4, a $2 pick 5 and a $5 Superfecta. Hope you "toss" AP out the exotics again.
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Chas04
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Haskin is completely incorrect which is not the norm for him. AP got whipped a lot in the Del Mar futurity and the Frontrunner. He didn't get whipped in his first two starts this year because they were just such big margins. It was excessive but to your point he had been whipped very hard prior as a two year old and it did not negatively effect him the next time he ran. IMO it means nothin
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Chas04
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Is there anyone on this entire board but Covello that likes AP but me? I got crushed on Chrome last year in the Derby but then pressed him in the Preakness. Granted....all the exotics were extremely low...but a win is a win. I then tried to beat him in the Belmont and pressed harder then I ever had before. It was probably the greatest single day I ever had at the track. I see all the chinks agai
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Chas04
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Lol...no I don't know more then anyone else on here. I consider this probably the sharpest group of professional players out there. Thats why I love seeing everyones opinions. I read and heard all about APs ear plugs as well. I think we all did. Yes he can get beat and yes he will take an L eventually. But to blatantly toss him out of the exacta in Baltimore is throwing darts not handicappin
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