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Thoro-Graph
Short answer: absolutely not.
TL;DR: no, because the CRW only makes a bet when it calculates an inefficiency in the tote odds. In other words, it calculates what the odds of each bet "should" be, given the other information available on the tote board. When it finds a bet that is overlaid, it bets. So, if there are nothing but CRW's in the pool, then they all sit there staring a
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TempletonPeck
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Sure, and to be clear, I'm not taking the position that you're wrong about that. I guess it's as likely as anything that the answer is inertia/conventional wisdom.
(If everyone thinks that US turf horses aren't as good, and because of that they never go over, it's probably hard as a trainer to be the only guy trying to convince your owners to spend the time/money to shi
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TempletonPeck
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Seems to me there are, at today's exchange rates, about $5.4mm reasons for the best turf horses in the United States to get over to France and prove you right, and none of them are trying. At the minimum, the 3yo's should be going right?
So why aren't they? Is the lasix that much of an issue?
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TempletonPeck
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I didn't take it to mean that they wanted to be able to make predictions about turf horses on dirt or vice-versa, just wanted to be better able to compare the quality of turf and dirt horses.
And isn't that the point of speed figures generally? To be able to compare the quality of a horse's performance with another's, possibly from different days/times/distances?
This be
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TempletonPeck
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You're the professor but that was the consensus in the room I was in. Seat of the pants analysis was that jockeys wanted no part of the rail, happier to be 3-4 wide the whole way 'round the track. Be interested to see how it comes back.
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TempletonPeck
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I will try to get my hands on what there is, thanks for the leads.
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TempletonPeck
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Thanks very much Mike. Feels like bet against is right, she's so popular she almost has to be a bad bet.
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TempletonPeck
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Hi all, I will be leaving the friendly confines of the Wynn Race & Sports this weekend to be at Longchamp for the Arc, lucky me! Any advice for any sort of form/figures/anything I can get for the races there?
TIA.
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TempletonPeck
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TGJB Wrote:
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> Ahem. Pletcher is not the only one who has had
> horses not run well on BC day. And this one is not
> on the West coast.
>
> There will be some very fast horses going off at
> big prices in that race. Thinking Beholder might
> be second choice.
Assuming all start, AP will go favored, HC will b
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TempletonPeck
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I think you are likely remembering the 2013 Distaff, at Santa Anita, in which (without taking any position on whether any of these had their best that day) she dominated PoS, Close Hatches, Royal Delta, and two others whose names escape me.
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TempletonPeck
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By the way, that would be up from my present Canterbury handle of $0.
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TempletonPeck
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I, for one, would immediately start betting ~$35-40k/year there. I presently play about 1x/week, sometimes 2.
Don't know how much difference that makes in the grand scheme (can't begin to guess how many or few of me there are), but there it is.
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TempletonPeck
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