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Thoro-Graph
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There you go again: Giving trainers in Louisiana another idea.
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hellersorr
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Conquest Mo Money, the outside horse, broke . . . out.
The person who invents a way to prevent the outside horse from breaking out is going to be one wealthy summagun.
(And, yes, I understand this is a non-Thorographically oriented post. Still.)
by
hellersorr
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You're a brave man leaving out Always Dreaming from a Pick 4. Good luck.
by
hellersorr
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At these odds, the only possible value I see is Conquest Mo Money, because he has early speed in a race lacking same. But I still hate the post, because of the possibility of breaking out.
This was a much more interesting race before Royal Mo got injured.
YMM(and probably will)V
by
hellersorr
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By the way, I've been reading this list for several years and I would like to thank you for introducing me to the word "alte kakker." Absolutely tremendous term.
by
hellersorr
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Thorographically, Hence is arguably seventh fastest runner in the race and his top effort is arguably considerably slower than the top efforts of the six runners who are faster than him.
Because of this and because the projected pace does not appear to favor deep closers, Hence would not appear to be a wise bet at anything less than 20-1. But what if he's 30-1? 35-1?
At SOME price he
by
hellersorr
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At what price is one forced to say: "Wow, those are some seriously high odds on Hence"?
by
hellersorr
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Is this ultra hush-hush horse (shown in "Race of the Week") with the ultra hush- hush best figure (shown in "Race of the Week") going to get the same pace set-up as he got in the ultra hush-hush race (shown in "Race of the Week") at "The Track From Where Big Figures Often Don't Transfer"?
(I feel like Danny DeVito in L.A. Confidential.)
Well, on
by
hellersorr
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Ask the Experts
I don't like CMM's post, either, for the following reason: I've seen too many horses in the outside post break out. Johnny V surely won't want CE, breaking right next to AD, lapped on top of AD, so Johnny's gonna go. If CMM breaks out at the start and Johnny's going, AD's on the lead and CMM is being hard-used to overcome breaking out.
Doesn't have to
by
hellersorr
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Well, if AD goes off at 4-5 and CE at 5-2, there are going to be some outrageous odds on good horses.
by
hellersorr
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Although, in checking the Double payoffs, I guess Mathcapper would say it was preordained.
by
hellersorr
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Very good.
Now excuse me while I go throw up after what happened to the odds on the eventual winner in Evangeline's third.
by
hellersorr
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Fair enough.
Let me ask this: Have you ever done a study on whether or not shippers under-perform their numbers and patterns in relation to their odds?
by
hellersorr
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So a number is a number is a number. I'm kind of slow but that part I understand.
But at the risk of making more and more parts of your body explode: How do you incorporate shipping into your handicapping and betting judgments on a day-to-day basis?
"Until they have become accustomed to a new race track, they run below their best form." (Tom Ainslie).
Now I am aware, we
by
hellersorr
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What is the official Thoro-Graph position, if any, on shippers and how their figures should be considered or adjusted?
by
hellersorr
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Frank D - I am closer to you than I am to Sekrah when it comes to bias but to say Sekrah or anybody on this list compared Always Dreaming to Secretariat is some kind of serious BS.
All Sekrah said was that he could make a better case for Always Dreaming than the sheets and Pletcher's Derby history would suggest, and that if - IF! - the price was right Sekrah would bet him. The price was
by
hellersorr
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Re playbacks from a Turf Dead Rail, didn't someone post last year at the same time about how difficult it was for horses who raced on a Turf Dead (I.E. Boggy) Rail to race well next time out unless they had considerable rest?
by
hellersorr
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My own personal opinion is that there was an inside bias part, but not all, of the two days.
I would point out, though, that using TG figures was only one facet of Bias Bob's argument.
AS to Lookin At Lee: 1) He saved ground every step of the way. As per TG, this is ideal regardless whether or not the rail is biased. Shortest way around and all that. 2) As others have written, bo
by
hellersorr
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Just my opinion but it appears Bias Bob brought his "A" game.
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hellersorr
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Speaking of identical rides, compare Rajiv Maragh's move out of the gate in the very wet 2011 Belmont to his move out of the gate in the very wet 2017 Kentucky Derby.
Interestingly, trainer Graham Motion's horse was sinned against in the former but committed the sin in the latter.
(Hmmm. Perhaps Motion felt it was better to have Maragh for 'im than agin 'im.)
by
hellersorr
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Well, then, let me make an auspicious (or perhaps inauspicious) debut with this thought: Perhaps it would be a good idea for Jerry Brown not to refer to non-Kool-Aid posters as "nuts."
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hellersorr
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