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Re: Domestic Spending scr? - 2 years ago
I had the pick 4 with both of Appleby's horses, plus a few longshots. But not the horse that actually finished second. I gotta say, I am not happy with this latest 'first time ever' screw job. I'm not sure I will ever understand it.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Even Blind Squirrels - 2 years ago
I don't know anything about that track, but the time was pedestrian....and he looked all out.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Even Blind Squirrels - 2 years ago
What was the distance of that race? 9 furlongs? A mile and 3/16s?by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Georgina Baxter - 2 years ago
But didn't we read that SGF 1000 tests like dexamethasone, which Baffert has had problems with, with several runners? Claiming it was a result of improper use of an ointment? Or use by a groom who was handling one of his runners? Am I misreading this?by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: TDN - Using Speed Figures to Track Possible Cheaters - 2 years ago
That's sort of my point. Check Chad's start day with Frankel....2002.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: TDN - Using Speed Figures to Track Possible Cheaters - 2 years ago
FYI, the vet was Stephen Allday.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: TDN - Using Speed Figures to Track Possible Cheaters - 2 years ago
This is a very informative thread and I hesitate to deflect it with a 'not entirely relevant' comment. But here goes: I think you might find that Bobby Frankel's west coast career made a sharp upward turn after Chad Brown joined his barn, fresh out of his internship with the vet in Kentucky (at least I think it was Kentucky). I remember sitting in the Santa Anita clubhouse, watchby confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Navarro/Servis Wiretapped - 2 years ago
Seriously? They're not even close to catching all the bad guys.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Gamine, Whitmore - 2 years ago
Who knows what the real cause was, but this old timer ran his worst race in years....sad to see....hope Moquett offers some insight.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: navarro - 2 years ago
What's missing from both of these articles is the impact on the fan, the handicapping public. How do fans get restitution? Answer: we don't. My racetrack friends remember that I called out Navarro and Servis several years ago. Servis, especially when he went an entire Gulfstream meeting while winning at close to a 50% level. It was impossible to do and not wise, but he did itby confused - Ask the Experts
Re: More Jack Sisterson Magic - 2 years ago
I don't think he is a cheater....he wins at too low a percentage to be part of that group. I've hit a few of his surprise winners and they all seem to have one thing in common....they get prepped into their big wins off one or two prep races with improving performances from the previous race to a prep to a prep. In other words, he seems to have a goal and gets there the old fashionedby confused - Ask the Experts
Ground Loss vs Momentum Loss - 3 years ago
First of all, this is not a critical topic....more of an observation. The Haskell writeup gives a cogent insight into TG's handling of 'ground loss' as an important handicapping factor. It is very consistent with the approach I have used for years, with some success. However, the terminology is really offkey from the scientific point-of-view. What happens to a horse on a tuby confused - Ask the Experts
Swiss Skydiver - 3 years ago
McPeek was quoted saying that the filly had a slight 'injury' behind just before her last race stinker. Apart from not believing or liking the fact that a trainer at his level would ever run a horse of this quality with any sort of injury, should we take him at his word? Or toss the horse?by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Seek Again Stakes - 3 years ago
And I forgot to mention: Get Smokin was also going to be a classic case of 'the lone speed.' For sure.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Seek Again Stakes - 3 years ago
Get Smokin and Decorated Invader (who figures to run a better race than his last off the layoff) are the only graded winners in here and take turns against one another. They should make the race. Is it just me or is Saez riding really awful? Or does he have a new agent? What's the problem here?by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: A Tale of Two Trainers - 3 years ago
Whoops. Your general direction is fine, but you're a little off with Chad and Frankel. Before he joined Frankel's barn, he worked for awhile with Stephen Allday, TAP's vet for some time. I could be wrong, but I think he was referred to as the man in the White Mercedes. Whenever the car showed up at a stable, winners ensued. After Brown joined Frankel THAT barn got really gby confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Cloud Computing - 3 years ago
They're handicapping history, not horses. Lost souls.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Preakness Pass - 3 years ago
The only way to bet a suspected drug trainer is to bet him, because you never know. If he wins his 25 to 30% you win 25 to 30% and you're happy to take it. And, by the way, they hit at all prices.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Preakness M/L - 3 years ago
Well, we go in circles here - sometimes. The real point was to identify possible upsets in the Preakness. I'm seeing possibilities with Midnight Bourbon - for obvious reasons and Keepmeinmind - because of his 'wakeup' in the Derby. I could be wrong, but these two seem to be trending in a better direction than they were going into the Derby. That's all.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Preakness M/L - 3 years ago
Robber has somewhere around a 27% win percentage right now and has had meets where he strikes over 30%. The last guy who showed up with ridiculous numbers was Servis at Gulfstream a couple of years ago with 50%. That lit up the scoreboard and I thought it was just a matter of time. It was. And I was urging my pals to bet Navarro without handicapping for the same reason, for years. Shug hadby confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Preakness M/L - 3 years ago
My current thinking holds that Diodoro or Asmussen have a better shot at an upset, if you can call it an upset. Whatever happened to the former's runner in the two races preceding the Derby was pretty much offset by his relatively good run at Churchill....if Mandaloun could get back on track in the Derby after a clunker (by whatever means necessary) so did Keepmeinmind. And if my origiby confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Phipps Stable - 3 years ago
IMHO, that's almost as challenging as running against Baffert.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Listen... - 3 years ago
No need to. You were wrong and I was right. I think that's what counts in handicapping.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Listen... - 3 years ago
We're not supposed to talk about winners postrace, but maybe my patterns are better than yours. Sorry, I don't like to go negative, but MS looked like one of the top 5 in the race to me, PRE-race.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Listen... - 3 years ago
You're saying this horse was a 'move up' horse? Give me a break, he was among the leaders in numbers going into the race. Did he improve? Yes. But not out of the range of normalcy for a young horse. Baffert may be an egotistical idiot, but he's no fool. This positive is not the reason the horse won. Give Baffert some credit and JV too. They stole the race the old fasby confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Yes, humans must first touch the drug - 3 years ago
They wiretapped Navarro and Servis (thank God), so it was really pathetic listening to Baffert complain about being the only one this is happening to. Who knows what they'd learn if he was tapped? And when was the last time you heard Asmussen complain about being targeted? I think he's received around 20 suspensions during his career.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Thank you sir! Can we have another! RAM... - 3 years ago
No more vets in white Mercedes? That's the stuff of legends.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Ky Derby - 3 years ago
Perfect view of Irad's ride....if the horse had any chance he blew it in the first sixteenth....my guess is that the break was so clean for him that he decided he didn't have to gun the horse....then the sky fell in on him. Compare this to JV's strategy on the winner. Or should we say BB's strategy? The other BB, Belichick, would be proud: play the strength you have.by confused - Ask the Experts
Re: Mattress Mac's Hedge - 3 years ago
Right, but shouldn't this horse have odds lower than 3-1?by confused - Ask the Experts