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Thoro-Graph
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gladness - he still had the race won and somehow lost it to a horse that had trouble (and was giving him a lot of weight). it's easy to say but I doubt that last year's jo'burg would have thrown that race away (I did see a few of his races last year). maybe (in UK parlance) he hasn't "trained on". that would certainly explain the apparent lack of confidence. believ
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Michael,
you make some good points on EOD - thanks. ultimately we have to accept the fact that 20/1 shots will have some question marks over them, otherwise they wouldn't be that price. sometimes they overcome it, sometimes they don't. I don't have the form in front of me so I don't know how fast they went early in the norfolk - it sure got a good enough final figure (TG an
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Philip,
always enjoy reading your opinion on foreign horses, but do not understand your "roughly run" comment re jo'burg's last race. The piece I saw (last 4 furlongs) had him in a perfect spot with nobody around him and actually having the run of the race. The other horse maybe had trouble. anything I didn't see at the start ?
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LGNB,
I'm glad you're back on the derby. I do find it scary and somewhat worrysome that it seems like everyone is mentioning the same horses (are we simply just convincing each other and patting ourselves on the back?). at the prices offered, saarland, perfect drift and essence are the three runners I'm most interested too win-wise (in that order). the post won't matter tha
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I use brisnet for broad indication of pace - yet I have no clue what "late pace" means (I guess it's sad that I still use it). I look at the wood and sunday break has a better late pace figure than medaglia d'oro, even though he lost ground at the end - I guess it's based on more distance (last 3f ?) than I thought. Anyway the point I'm making (based on my wood exam
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TG has commonly done an (estimated) figure for the big dubai races that precede the KD. It is on that basis that I made the comments about wordly manner etc etc.
I agree on the doubts over request for parole, the blue grass seemed easy for the money at stake, if that was the plan and you skip, the horse must have reacted pretty badly.
last year I thought TG had the wood too slow (same busine
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Tim,
EOD will run well - all godolphin horses in the derby have performed as well as they could be expected to.
worldly manner, china visit and curule had no business being there on class and (especially) distance considerations yet all ran respectably (first six or seven, I think). in fact I think that on TG figures all three ran a new top in the derby - clearly the dubai trip was no problem
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I'm somewhere in between the two of you on this issue. Godolphin and Coolmore are to be respected anytime, but the overall derby messages we're getting right now are not as positive as for example BC last year or when Giants C. came over 2 yrs ago. frankie comes over for imperial gesture but is not sure if he stays for EOD, o'brien has been positively puzzling on jo'burg (he
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yes, they had the wind at their back early when it looks like they were going fast. and on their face at the end when it looks like they were going slow....is it really that hard ?
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I can see why my BB reference was confusing (no, I was not suggesting he was on par with saarland). What I meant to say was that, while Mark's statement suggested that closers should have been favoured, the other recognized closer (with ability) in the field did not fare very well either (and in fact may have had first run on saarland and yet finished behind him). Not a major point, as clea
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Mark,
I'm already in the saarland camp so I'm biased, but here is why I too am taking a positive stance:
1. barely raising a hoof is very harsh. he was beaten just over 3 lengths and must have made up 2 lenghts right at the end. Would I have liked him to close a little more - yes...but it wasn't bad.
2. pace - as mentioned by eb, many other races had sharp(er) splits. my take
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at ML prices, can't see much reason to bet anyone in the Wood. You can make some sort of case for all 5 major contenders and the odds appear fair. What happens in front will (as always) be a huge factor. Maybe bet some exotics using a couple of different pace scenarios. (e.g: Medaglia unchallenged in front over saarland over sunday break....etc)
The first I would toss would be Blue Burner
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don't think charismatic was an exception. In fact I don't believe he went back even once (at least not close to the derby). He had a consecutive string (three?) of 7 (ish) and then moved forward to a 3.5 in the lexington 2 weeks before the derby.
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Chris,
You'll have to stop posting because every time you do so I feel like putting more money on saarland. Ahead of the week-end he looks the best fit by miles (and I know he only has 2 preps and people bring up point given, but point given barely raised a sweat in winning 2 races before the derby last year - no wonder he was short).
others that don't really fit profile-wise but ar
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pace might look slow, then those drawn 12 and higher decide to try and get a good position before the turn.......
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I totally forgot about the 10 pounds - I guess you're right, they probably ran a similar number. If he moved forward from the 3, he would still be dangerous. Still, apart from that move on the turn (good sign as you need that at CD) he could have been more impressive visually in the stretch. Have to respect Came Home purely on class and guts, but for me he showed he's going to pull h
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Mark,
yes, but "price will be OK" is not necessarily what you want to be saying about your horse after his last derby prep. I know you've been touting him for a while and he has many good credentials (his pattern was great, CD form, dual qualifier, right running style, solid/classy foundation at 2...) but you have to admit that, even after changing leads, he didn't close lik
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I can't print right now and I have lost track of new products (simulcast book ?). Could you tell me what would be on sale at the 53rd street site - sheets for individual tracks + a separate simulcast book ? (at what price)
thanks
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Philip,
The take on Thu/Fri is much lower than the week-end and the fact that the others are running may mean that people are holding on to their bets on them until then. I still say EOD drifts to 20/1. I remember Ibn al Haitham well - I backed him in Dubai at 25/1 after Crisford said he was working well, and he ran a blinder. But realistically he's still a maiden and his proximity (plus t
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...and (resuming a debate from approx 12 months ago) it is in my view debatable how much Monarchos really did "bounce" in the wood last year. That day there was a truly diabolical speed bias so his "effort" was in any event way better than the actual figure. Plus I believe that was the only two turn race on the day and it could have been made faster had Jerry wanted.
Not w
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will johannesburg come ? the signs are saying no....will see
wrt to Essence, I've seen him quoted at 16/1 and 20/1 in England, where you'd expect him to be a shorter price (because Godolphin commands more respect there) so I can't see him taking much money here. He'll probably be 20/1 or 25/1 in pool 3.
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tgab wrote:
>
> kevin s wrote:
> >
> > What time will it be up?? Please
>
> TG--Later this afternoon. Look for it on the Order Online
> Special page.
>
>
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Jim,
Actually, you're right (and that was an honest mistake on my part). As someone who liked mongoose, what had stuck in my mind was how closely HH matched him figure-wise with potential ground saved.
You mentioned "value" in your other post - I would guess most people use that concept. The issue is being a good enough handicapper (whatever tools you're using) to make tha
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Mark,
it's been 48 hours and nobody has congratulated you, so let me do it - shame on you for getting the price wrong... just shows exactly how loud you can laugh when the next guy comes along telling you that pace does not matter. kudos to the TG analysis making it crystal clear about how HH would compare with ground saved. so why did I back Mongoose ?
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Jim,
When I went to Turkey on vacation I was a millionaire too for a little while (in Turkish Liras of course). I think I met a few Nebels there too. Not that I would dare think you would omit any relevant details in the interest of brevity (was it Calder or Gulfstream, I've forgotten again).
P.S. I don't disagree with the jist of your messages, but you'd have to agree that as
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I've always been amazed at the significant differences in racing between US and UK and this prep/spacing issue has always puzzled me. When I was in London it was commonplace to go to big races with 1 (maybe 2) prep races - in fact (slight digression) for some of the big steeplechase races it was not uncommon for horses to go best fresh (at 3 miles !). I know most of the trainers used prett
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Re: - 22 years ago
I believe in luck and runs etc etc but this sounds bad. I would try to change things e.g.
1. If you bet by phone or internet - cancel these accounts. Make sure you have to work to place your bet (e.g. walk/drive to OTB). Let's face it - your confidence is low and you may be placing bad bets. this may help in eliminating some.
2. Analyze, analyze , analyze. I trust you keep records. I
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