For those pondering the fate of Eddington, Rock Hard Ten, or other horses with graded earnings issues, here's a link to a story on bloodhorse.com that gives the current status (going, not going, uncertain) for the top 52 horses on the money list:by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
SC - Preachin' would have made my list, but I've already read that Baffert is taking him to the Derby. He's blaming Santiago's ride for the poor performance in the Blue Grass.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
There are a lot of horses ahead of Eddington and/or Rock Hard Ten on the graded earnings list whose owners might reasonably conclude that the Derby is not for them. It will be interesting to see how many bail. I have in mind, for example (in rough order of earnings): Action this Day Sinister G Value Plus Tiger Hunt Saratoga County Capitano Kilgowan Song of the Sword Tricky Taboo Consecrate Mr.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
CTC - A couple of comments on your post: Consecrate - I think he needs earnings to make the Derby. He's 25th on the graded earnings list posted on kentuckyderby.com, with $98,000 (the Winstar was ungraded). Although some likely nonstarters are ahead of him, others currently behind him are likely to get a check this weekend or next. Master David - I'm not sure Bailey could have disby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
Pollard's Vision at 150/1 was a great play. It seems to me there had to be value somewhere in the 3rd Derby futures pool. The money bet on Rock Hard Ten and a couple of the longshots was basically a gift. They won't have enough earnings to make the field. I landed on Master David (and was not excited when he dropped from 14/1 to 12/1 late). My guess is that he may run better away fby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
I had no money on the race and just saw it briefly on TV, but I was surprised that Bailey and Wild Spirit didn't get DQd to 3rd for the hip check they delivered to Star Parade at the top of the stretch. Does Bailey ever get taken down?by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
I'm not sure he gets in the gate. Based on the most recent numbers I've seen, he has only $98,000 in graded stakes earnings (the WinStar is ungraded), which puts him at 26th on the list. There are some unlikely participants ahead of him (Halfbridled, Tiger Hunt, Kitten's Joy), but also some horses behind him who may well move up in the coming 2 weeks (Master David, Rock Hard Ten,by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
I'll tell you what I'm going to do. I'm going to go to the track less and play less. I'll still play the Derby and its preps, the Breeders Cup, and some stakes in between, but my days of spending weekend days playing full cards either from the computer or at the track are over until the rebate situation is corrected. Frankly, I don't want to play against those (or maybby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
I've listened to the seminar and it sounds pretty convincing with respect to the points you were trying to make. My compliments. To play devil's advocate, however, I'd ask a couple of questions? If moisture content is kept within a range surrounding optimal levels (I think I saw the range 6% to 9% referred to by one of your experts), how much does it really matter where you areby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
In addition to not being fully cranked up, I wonder whether TCE may have been intentionally kept inside to give him experience running inside and behind horses. I also would not be surprised if Read The Footnotes was intentionally kept inside, to see if he would run as well inside horses as he did outside in the Fountain of Youth. Given that no dominating favorite has emerged, a full gate seemsby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
CTC - Bris gave out the following numbers for this weekend: Friends Lake (99) The Cliff's Edge (97) Eurosilver (103) Suave (101) Preachinatthebar (101) Limehouse (100) I'm inclined to think that the Beyers are off for Gulfstream.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
CTC - I don't think you can link directly to the Brisnet page I was looking at. You have to go through their home page to the Handicapper's Edge. I think registration is required. I'm hesitant to say much more, because a TG board is not an appropriate place to promote Brisnet. My point was simply that there is likely to be some dispute among figure makers about how to handle tby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
Brisnet.com has now posted their figures for the weekend. While not directly comparable to the Beyers, they're more like what I was expecting with respect to the Florida Derby. They have Friends Lake within a couple of lengths of Preachinatthebar and make the Swale the fastest of the weekend's Derby preps by a 2-3 lengths.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
Joe B. - I knew the race had fallen apart, but I was thinking mid- to high-90s. As for the Derby winner not being in the race, I'm inclined to agree, but there are obviously dissenters. The Cliff's Edge was bet down from 22/1 to 16/1 on Sunday in the Derby futures pool.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
The DRF website lists the winning Beyer in the Florida Derby as a 92. Wynn Dot Comma (and presumably Eurosilver) earned a 96. It will be interesting to see how figures from other makers compare as they become available. Post Edited (03-15-04 16:26)by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
My guess is that they're talking about exacta prices that are out of line with the win prices of the horses involved. For example, Horse A might be 3/1 in the win pool, but someone armed with a computer (and complete, last-minute exacta pool info) might find that, by playing all of the exactas with Horse A on top the right number of times, they can guarantee themselves a payout of $1,000 (iby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
One of the things that I thought was interesting was that the rebate players Tampa cut off were making most of their money by exploiting inefficiencies in the exacta pools. That leads me to think that I should start being more discriminating about jumping into those pools. I'm kind of casual about using exactas in lieu of place bets as "savers" when I like a longshot.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
CTC - Don't sell yourself short. Regardless of what else you did, coming up with Friends Lake at 35/1 as a key in your exotics wasn't just luck. I note that you gave him a favorable mention in your overview of the race.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
The Cliff's Edge was a much shorter price in the Florida Derby yesterday than I expected (or was willing to take). I see from the Red Board that he was logical on the TG sheets. Do we think there's a cause-effect relationship there? Or was the crowd just playing TCE because he's a Zito horse, Zito is popular, and a couple of other Zito horses ran well earlier in the card? I hadby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
CTC - Although I'm new to posting here, I'm pretty familiar with the bounce theory and opposing views. I've developed my own method for incorporating the probability of a "bounce" into my handicapping. Although I have RTF at 14/1 in the first futures pool, I didn't play him yesterday at even money. (I had him as playable at a bit above 2/1, but wasn't holdinby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
I note that, according to Michael Dickinson via the DRF, Tapit coughed on the way back to the barn yesterday and showed mucus in his lungs (3 on a scale of 5 according to Dickinson). If you're considering him in the futures pool (he's not for me at anything like the current odds of 12/1), that might excuse his performance yesterday, but also lead you to question whether he'll be iby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
I read a similar quote (I think from Jose Santos) last year about During (a Baffert trainee). One of my theories in playing the Derby is that breeding is no longer as important as it once was (and is overemphasized by the betting public), because enhanced medication (or whatever) allows many horses to overcome the distance limitations of their sires. That's helps explain recent winning sirby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
TGAB - I've just listened to the seminar on your methodology. My compliments. I thought I knew quite a bit about figure making from having read Beyer's book and having listened to some Ragozin introductory tapes years ago (forgive me, I was young), but I found your seminar quite educational and concise. I do have one quibble on wind effects. The seminar says (paraphrasing here) thaby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
Mall - One way to describe the Tampa Bay Downs approach is that they've decided they can make more money by fleecing the customer themselves than by selling the right to do so to someone else. In a similar vein, when Oaklawn announced that they had cut off some of the batch-betting rebate shops, they also publicized it as a protect-the-customer move. They mentioned, however, that they hadby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
I'm with Mall on this issue. Focusing on past-posting is a mistake. First, if it is happening, it would have to be happening sporadically. The pattern of one outlet winning consistently on 1 x All x All (x All) Pick-3's (and Pick-4's) would be too easy to spot. Second, by focusing on that issue, you give the industry an easy response: it's not happening. How can you proveby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
Thehoarseplayer and Mall - I just listened to the panel discussion on rebates by the three track operators. It was illuminating. Thank you for pointing it out. Are the account wagering and bettor panels also worthwhile? Thank you also to Mall for explaining batch wagering. I knew that kind of thing was going on, but didn't know it was called batch wagering. I guess one of the problemsby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
TGAB - Thank you for your responses to my questions. I had the impression that you might only be considering wind effects when the wind is at an angle to the stretch. I'll listen to the seminar. Thank you also for running a very informative board. I've been reading it for a while, before I decided to plunge in with my questions.by BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
In the sire averages, do the route averages include both dirt and turf routes? If so, have you considered splitting out the dirt routes? In the speed figures themselves (without giving away any proprietary information), do you take into account wind speed? I saw some discussion of this a while back, but it was never clear to me what you are doing, particularly with respect to winds that are blby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
Not only is Trevor a very good race caller, he is, in my mind, a pioneer. In my (perhaps flawed) memory, he was the first to regularly incorporate comments on how horses were performing into his calls. He notes which horses are "moving comfortably", which are "having to be asked", which are "crying out for room", which "loom a danger", etc. Go back and lby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts
FIRST: MY BIAS. I'm a small player. I'll never get a rebate and I'm fine with that. I'm also fine with the idea of larger players getting rebates. What bothers me is how the influx of huge money is changing the game. I aspire to be a value player and I know I can't get there unless I have a good idea of what the final odds will be and am able to take them into accounby BitPlayer - Ask the Experts