You are right, I was talking more in general. The Derby is unique. In terms of getting the mile and 1/4, I think the breeding is going to be more important than the pace, although I have seen in recent years that quantifying breeding (dosage, etc.) is another tough issue. Accepted values are changing. A horse wins and they back-date the chef-de-race ratings and poof!, now you know. Of course, aftby HP - Ask the Experts
Mall: I had to read what you said a few times, but yes, that is what I'm doing. By the time a horse has run a negative number or two, he will be bet down accordingly. With all the speed figures out there, the cat is out of the bag pretty quick. The public will almost always overbet the last race (the horse that's peaked) as opposed to looking for the horse that has yet to pop, or couldby HP - Ask the Experts
I think you are onto something Tready but it is very difficult to quantify. On Repent and Siphonic, it depends on how the rest of the field shapes up. If it works out (unlikely) that they can loaf on the lead for awhile, it may help them, and then you're tossing a horse that you KNOW is fast enough to win. I will try to imagine how the pace shapes up but I would be reluctant to make this tby HP - Ask the Experts
I don't know if I would call these rules, but these are some general observations. At what performance level (if any) do you start to expect a reaction even with a strong pattern? I mainly consider are the age/sex of the horse. Fillies are more likely to react to big efforts. So are younger horses. I don't know what kind of 'rule' you can make out of this. If a 2yo ran a zby HP - Ask the Experts
Treadhead, you can't figure out how to ignore a thread on this board? Your comments are...very insightful. HPby HP - Ask the Experts
Jerry, If you go back (2/26 "the last word") you will see the 'insults' Aly is referring to were simply good-natured jibes which I directed at Aly and Mall (who were locked in a tense battle). The title alone would indicate that there was some humor involved, unless you are as married to your opinions as Aly is. I certainly didn't say anything on the level of him beingby HP - Ask the Experts
Hey Jerry, nothing from nothing, but I've been trying to knock it off for days. "The rest of your post here is dishonest and stupid. Yes. I am insulting you." -- Alydar You could have said something then, but you chose not to. I guess I should let this pass, huh? I'm sure if someone said this to you, you would take the high road. I agree with something an earlier poster raisby HP - Ask the Experts
For the historical record - this is what started the 'vitriol' HP: Hegel stays, and look for Nietzsche to get a bigger role. If you don't like it, don't read it. AND YOUR COMMENTS ABOUT WEIGHT ARE WRONG (yes, that is my CAPS LOCK added). Weight will cost more lengths at longer distances, but a length is more important at 5f than it is at 10f. (Can't appear to be playingby HP - Ask the Experts
I read that book by Bonnie Ledbetter "Body Language of Horses" (I think that's the title). It was very interesting and I have had no success with it. HPby HP - Ask the Experts
Okay, bj was wrong and his presentation baffled you. You like him and think he puts some premium on what you say. And you are 'trying' to be honest with me now. Since being honest is an effort for you, I wish you luck with this. The 'first four pounds' thing was a joke (which most people would get based on me saying I talked to horses about it). I'm going to stop monoby HP - Ask the Experts
I will not re-hash the argument. You did NOT respond to his point in the last paragraph. What you were doing (as opposed to responding) was trying to co-opt his argument, with your arm around his shoulder, while telling everyone how much you like him. A 'response' would have been - "bj, you don't get it" (that's what you're saying now, right? - why didn'tby HP - Ask the Experts
No, it's not right. You said, "I think wagering strategy, money management and value are much more important than 1-5 pounds=1 point." I'm saying that the 1-5 pounds = 1 point equation is the kind of thing that can have an impact on your wagering strategy, money management and determination of value. You said, "Speed numbers are only a piece to a big puzzle which canby HP - Ask the Experts
You must use something to determine value, right? Plenty of times a horse is an overlay because it is getting weight (especially if it's not, as you put it, the 'best horse'). That's what this whole discussion is about. HPby HP - Ask the Experts
Hi BJ. You will notice that Alydar chose not to repond to what you said ("Beaten lengths is irrelevant to weight carried" - bless your heart), and instead 'responded' by rehashing his points and argument with me. So it doesn't really matter what you said, Aly's just going to repeat himself again. Alydar is having an argument with Mall. I posted. Alydar responds andby HP - Ask the Experts
1 point = about 1 length at 5f, 2 lengths at 10f, WHETHER IT IS A POINT OF ABILITY OR A POINT OF WEIGHT. So the 5 pound difference in weight is worth MORE at a longer distance. That chart is fascinating, but I guess you weren't happy with this as the last word. My lawn looks like CRAP! HPby HP - Ask the Experts
Hey, I'm down with that, bro. Or should I say 'dog'? I like everybody and everybody likes me! The alternative could be that Aly and I race down streets of varying distance carrying weights on our backs (maybe we could carry real jockeys - I have the strength of ten men!). JB can have the film rights. You're probably jealous of me. He said he was 'thoroughly tired of myby HP - Ask the Experts
"Maybe TG should add a notation to op (off poorly)...the horse was off slowly and the Sprinting Length was more important according to Alydar." Maybe you, HP, should read the words that are on top of the ROTW every week: "Each path wide is worth about one length...at TODAY'S DISTANCE that equals...of a TG point." It varies according to distance, and off poorly would too.by HP - Ask the Experts
Jerry, mon chapeau, he said my comments on weight were wrong. This is what I said. Weight - a relatively tiny component assuming we are talking about a relatively tiny difference in weight. If two horses were likely to run 3's and one is carrying ten pounds less I'm probably going with that one (ground loss?), and in this example, it's a major component. Common sense would dictateby HP - Ask the Experts
Would you rather break one length slow in a hundred-yard dash or in a marathon? I thought we were talking about weight. What does this have to do with carrying weight? The effect of weight over distance, which is what we were talking about, has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with this point. Your original comment, : "Weight will cost more lengths at longer distances, but a length is more importaby HP - Ask the Experts
Weight will cost more lengths at longer distances, but a length is more important at 5f than it is at 10f. This is purest bunk. There's no such thing as a 'more important' length. The whole point is that it will be harder to get that length at 10f based on the fact that you carried the weight that much further. At 5f you have less time to make up the length (I guess this is whaby HP - Ask the Experts
I think this new arrangement stinks since I really wanted to remain anonymous, but I am such an egomaniac that I couldn't resist registering after seeing my nom de plume in print a few times. I never used anonymity to abuse people (even when I though I was abused, most notably by the Clown), and it's unfortunate that others could not adhere to this principle. My interest in this board hby HP - Ask the Experts