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Thoro-Graph
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Love to hear what people think of this race.
So far, the 3yo fields have been pretty deep and pretty balanced. The Sham came up short in horses but the holy bull is not.
Here is what I think:
Barbaro: What do you do with this one? The highweight ran a big 2yo # on the turf and if he can make the change, he could be the standout. Dynaformers are stronger on turf.
Itsallaboutthechase: R
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In the Oaks, i like Balance a little. She paired #'s in the fall and has been competitive in Stakes races. 25-1 looks pretty good to me
John
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So will the El Camino Real Derby run prior to the Derby pool closing?
I love the forward moving pattern and the breeding of AP Warrior
He is 40-1 going into today and looks like a nice play at that price.
Other thoughts?
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Too Much Bling looks vulnerable to me but there is not a lot of consistent horses in here.
I like Peace Chant a little going 2nd Time out for Mandella.
Anyone else have any thoughts on this?
Thanks
John B
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well, it looks like there are a lot of varying opinions which makes for good betting races. Good Luck to all!
John B
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Have to say that i like the way that these two races look on the sheets.
They seem to be wide open to me.
AVENTURA
1) CORINTHIAN: Best Route Figure, 7 weeks off, J Jerkens continue to improve them 3rd out, impeccable breeding (pulpit out of an easy goer mare). I like at a price. FUTURE DERBY CONTENDER?
2) SAINT DAIMON: Best figure in the race, 8 week layoff, no reason to think that he w
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Is there going to be a package for the TVG tourney like last weekend?
Thanks
John
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another longshot that has a competitive fig and a negative comment in the DRF. I like that
john
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Is this race wide open??
Nearly all of the figures are really close.
I am going to take a shot with #8 Mesawmi
mybe tie him up in some exactas with jambalya and silver whistle.
John
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Great analysis!
I like Angara at a price but I think Film Maker has a big race in her. She has come back with two competitive T-Graph numbers which included some trouble last out. Motion has done well in the turf stakes at Saratoga over the last couple of years. She looks good to me in a deep field.
A longshot that is intriguing to me is Delta Princess. Bailey rides this one. Only negative
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It is great that Saratoga is starting today.
I like Sir Pyy in the 2nd, Jonathan Quick in the 3rd, Secret Time in the 5th, and rousing Victory in the 7th
Good Luck to All!!
John
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Like the analysis on this race. It is challenging to beat English Channel. I would be shocked if this race does not end up with a SL PACE next to these horses b/c it seems that there is not a lot of speed in here.
I too like English Channel but I like Rush Bay at the morning line of 8/1. He had that nice number as a 2yo and has gotten back to it. A forward move puts him close to English Channe
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thanks! it was a good hit. Unfortunately, i did not have the easy ones in zakocity (singled alumni hall) and afleet alex.
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This looks real interesting. I like Cool Conductor a little in the Dixie. His run at Churchill on Derby day was impressive. His DQ was a shame b/c he was clearly the best. At 15-1 on the morning line, the best thorograph fig, and a visually impressive finish, he looks like a potential bomb to me.
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Love this card today. So many really deep fields.
1st race: I cannot believe Northern Stag is the 2nd coming of Ghostzapper. I swear I thought i was seeing things when i started handicapping this race. He must have loved the mud and as long as it is not muddy, i see a big regression coming. I like Natural Spring to get the day rolling for Asmussen.
5th race: Lion Tamer. 4-for-8 at 7F. He has ha
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well here goes
I think that my play will be Sun King to win. Zito was so high on him and he just never got going in the Blue Grass. I like his chance to bounce back. His odds are going to be good.
I am throwing out Bandini based on his huge move forward. Even though, i love his 10F breeding and the pace of the race plays right into his style. I can hear myself whining about this already.
I can
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How is TP on outside horses at 9F. That is the one concern that i have about mayan king and mr sword(although they will be part of my plays. This is one of the more interesting derby preps that i have seen this season
Also, the bourbonette, anyone see Easily pulling an upset?
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I really like Shamardal's breeding but until a horse comes form the UAE derby and is competitive in the Kentucky Derby, it is going to be hard for me to give him credit.
Greater Good? Will this horse get 10F? With phone trick as his grandsire and only a couple Inditab's even running, i just do not know about him
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The 10th looks interesting to me.
If Kansas City Boy can run a number like he did two back, he may be competitive at 4 or 5 to 1. He is getting weight from High Fly and has the better post. If High Fly backs up even a little, i think KC Boy has a shot.
John B
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chuckles
you are correct about honor grades being a sibling to ap indy and summer squall. I guess i am looking at honor grades(danzig is his sire) as a turf sire. I cannot think of a great dirt horse out of honor grades. I am sure i am forgetting someone though. Honor Glide is the horse that comes to mind for me.
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Did not see the race but High Fly sounded impressive. Any of those horses potential derby horses? Deputy Indy flopped but Magna Graduate ran pretty well. It seems like the ROTW was pointing towards him as a sleeper if he keeps heading in the right direction. Honor Grades and derby sire do not fit for me.
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Kela is scratched so that does not help the price of Purge. How short will Pico Central be now?
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taking Purge but the two favs look formidable but Kela's 3 big-figs in a row has to end sometime.
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Just curious what people thought about the Falls City at Churchhill and the Thanksgiving at FairGrounds.
I like Indy Groove at Churchill with her two competive numbers prior to being steadied and bouncing against tough competition in the Breeder's Cup. 9-2 seems high for that one.
Also, what about Ole Rebel at Fair Grounds. The DRF gave him no shot in the commentary by -John Garry- but hi
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Well, it is hard to be critical. When a horse like Wilko (poor figures, most established pattern, etc.) comes bounding home, it just reminds me how difficult the Breeders Cup really is. I did not purchase the analysis but using the seminar, i believed that i had several longshots that would be competitive. Unfortunately, it did not work out. Two races in a row I liked my chance at the top of the
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