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Thoro-Graph
Although I agree the letters aren't of much use if they are representing the same thing that the graph is, I think if you changed their purpose and used them more as running style predictor, they could be quite helpful. This would be similar to the quirin point thing, something that tells you the runner's style in addition to what the speed it has is. Here are 2 examples to clarify.
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TreadHead
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I'll be interested to see what the figure is given he was on the rail and it was a one-turn route, but all in all, definitely a big performance. If nothing else, he will definitely be fresher than BB in the Belmont.
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TreadHead
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Yes smalltimer, we've all read your comments about surfaces differences 6 times now. I guess your sarcasm meter must be turned off.
Keeneland is not difficult to handicap because of its poly surface. It is difficult to handicap because of the quality of racing there and the large range of different circuts that send in horses. Turf racing at Keeneland produces even less favorites than
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TreadHead
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Even money favorites win 4 of 5 on the Hollywood poly. You poly complainers are really starting win me over. It must have been the surface at Keeneland and not the level of competition that produced all those big prices this spring. That poly is impossible to figure out for sure.
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TreadHead
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As an avid poker player, I can say I think you are going to have a lot more trouble converting people to racing than you are poker. Racing has too many variables, bets, and other intimidating information that will "scare off" the lazy average joe.
With poker, you can sit down and play, and maybe get lucky right off that bat and have a good day. Even if you don't, once your i
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TreadHead
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So you dont think Momba or Cowboy Cal have any sort of G1 future anywhere? Or you just think only dirt races should qualify as G1? CC's sheet sure looks like one that would compete well at G1 8f turf events and Momba could end up being competitive in the poly G1s.
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TreadHead
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I just have to laugh when anyone calls the Keeneland poly surface "unpredictable" given the fact that turf races there this year were easily more unpredictable than the poly races, with an even lower % of favorites winning.
Yes, poly is more unpredictable than most established dirt tracks, but the level of racing at Keeneland is much different than it is anywhere else IMO, and that
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TreadHead
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from his DRF chat...
RFB0318__Guest_
Q: Denis of Cork has all the makings of a "buzz" horse---yet he's slow on the Beyer #'s. The TG Sheet guys who manage him might differ--your opinion?
Andrew_Beyer
The Sheet guys who manage him haven't looked so brilliant in their management thus far.
The ignorance shown by this statement is just staggering. Has he never
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TreadHead
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I think any rain is supposed to be out of the area by morning. Probably depends on how much they get, but I think that track dries out pretty well usually, specially if the temps are going to be in the 70s. If it is still a little muddy, I would throw out Court Vision, who seemed to struggle with that kind of track last out according to the jock.
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TreadHead
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All this smooth air talk is beyond ridiculous. This horse was out kicked in the stretch by Big Truck 2 races back and was not even in shouting distance of Brown in his last and beat Tomcito and Hey Bryn, who couldn't even make this race.
He has neither the speed to stay with Big Brown in the front part of the race, nor the closing kick to stay up with the closers if things should happe
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TreadHead
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Some head-to-head matchups are now available on Bodog. I thought the most interesting one was this one:
Pyro -200
ZFortune +150
If you dislike Pyro as much as I do, this appears to be one of the best matchups currently available. That, and any one involving playing against Millenium Wind, err I mean TOE (sorry, the sheets looked so similar I got confused).
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TreadHead
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LOL, well that formula is extremely old school, given it does not apply to more than half the winners in the last 10 years. The data clearly shows you do not need to be a Grade 1 winner at 2, and in many cases, you dont even need to have tried a Grade 1 at 2. So the number of races and the condtions defines "foundation" and not how fast each race was? You have it backwards IMO, the e
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TreadHead
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Sorry, guess I should have tried to make this a little more user friendly, my fault.
SD is the Standard Devation (in terms of the whole numbers I used) of the horse's 3 best (and/or most relevant) races. The concept is that a lower standard deviation between a horse's 3 best figures represents a solid "foundation".
I choose to work with whole numbers as a matter of per
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TreadHead
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> there are only 2
> horses who have an average TG figure less than 3
> and a SD of less than 2 1/2 TG points (10.0).
Remember, I multiplied the TG figures by 4, so the SDs are also multiplied by 4. Therefore, a SD of 10=2.5 TG points.
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TreadHead
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One of the many "arrows in my quiver" that I try to use for the Derby is an evaluation of foundation. This is much more an art than a science, but it is rooted in the perception that many horses who do well are coming off patterns that show consistency, repeated low figures, and the absence of large jump-ups to get to one very good race.
Aside from the fact that the analysis is pure
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TreadHead
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You are correct Mike, the turf race was not included in the figures I saw and he probably had a much better energy distribution in that race. His alw win was 52.58%, but I suppose that can probably be excused by how far in front he was and the fact that he geared down. Again, Im playing devils advocate here.
But regardless, I still think the figure history shows there is a bounce coming, and
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TreadHead
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I'll play devils advocate on this, these splits would break out to be:
11.8
11.2
11.8
and 23.8 for the last 2 we'll call 11.8 and 12.0 for the sake of argument (because anything else would be somewhat unusual.
This emphasizes my problem with this horse stretching out. He runs too fast too early and does not have enough energy late. None of his races so far have a brohammer
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TreadHead
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While in general, that is certainly true about post race excuses, I think the specific facts that Gomez cited make it carry a lot more weight. He didn't give the general "he didn't handle the surface", he gave vivid description of the surface being "greasy" and the horse slipping on it, as well as not being fully into the bridle the entire race. That, to me, says h
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TreadHead
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IMO if you are using the Wood to gauge Court Vision's ability, you have ignored the comments of the jockey who stated the track was very greasy and the colt was slipping all over the place and could not get a good hold.
You dont need to state an opinion that TOEs Wood race was better than CV, that is a fact no one will dispute. But what is more relevant is, assuming CD comes up dry, whic
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TreadHead
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New racing surface or not, Gulfstream is still by far a speed favoring track. BRIS stats show at:
6F 75% "speed bias", meaning races won by early speed horses, including 35% wire-to-wire. Average beaten lenghts at 1st call 1.6 and 2nd call 1.0
1 mile 66%, 22% wired, ABL 1.9 and 1.1
1 1/8 63%, 20% wired, ABL 2.2 and 1.5. "S" type closers have an impact value of .29,
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TreadHead
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For me, the reason BB is likely to bounce has just as much to do with the circumstances of his last race as it does his figures.
Look thru the history of the last 10-15 years of GP front-running alw/stakes winners and how they fared in the derby. Their record is dismal. The only one who did anything was Barbaro, and in his Fla Derby, he stalked the pace setter (who finished 2nd to last in
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TreadHead
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Can't speak for the other ones, but I check the Keeneland site every morning, they are running the tractor 5 or 6 times a day, and keep in mind a couple of the races are on grass. So it is not every 3 races there.
Today's for example...
The Gallop Master was used after training and again after races 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 with the tines set at approximately 2.5 inches.
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TreadHead
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Do you have experimental race shapes available from Friday's Keeneland card? Seeing as how 4 routes were won wire to wire, this seems like the kind of bias that the product would be great for. Would you have gotten most/all of these horses on the lead with the race shapes? (No, Im not advocating completely ignoring the TG figures themselves, but this might have been a huge help on a day l
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TreadHead
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Contrary to what the sour grape complainers on here say, Keeneland has been speed speed and more speed in routes the last week (today was ridiculous if you look at the charts. Take the Bluegrass too). And the rail looks pretty good the past couple days too.
Looking at the race shape, it doesn't seem like the front ends are going to be that disadvantaged and Riley Tucker might be able to
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TreadHead
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Hi Jerry,
I currently use (and perhaps others use) BRIS's pace figures as a way of attempting to gauge who has the ability to go to the front and where horses might be in general. I'm not sure if you are familiar with how they make these figures, I am really not.
Is it safe to assume that they most likely do not factor in all of the different things you guys are factoring in when m
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TreadHead
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Does anyone know how to get hoof size info on all the derby contenders? I have heard that a large hoof size makes all the difference at CD when it is dry. If I recall correctly, Barbaro was the only horse in the derby that year with hooves that measured "A" (largest hoof size is A+), but the person who posted hoof data that year has not posted anything since. Not saying you should ba
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TreadHead
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Does any one else notice that a good deal of the horses who seem to absolutely love the slop run miserably on poly? Pyro is just one such example.
Not sure how geeky the TG data guys are, but I'd be interested in a study that showed...
1) Horses who ran a lifetime top in slop AND
2) also have run a race(s) on poly
What is the figure difference between their best poly effort and
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TreadHead
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Curious as to what the thoughts are about the slow fractions in route races today at Keeneland. 6 Furlong times:
MSW-F - 1:16.28
MSW-F - 1:15.50
ALWNW1X - 1:15.36
Grade 3 - 1:14.90
Granted, other than the G3 the fields were certainly not anywhere near top notch, but these times are still remarkably slow. Is this a product of people being afraid to take the lead because of the late trac
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TreadHead
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