have to agree with treadhead here, Came Home looks like a miler, whether it's using Thoro, Rags, or anything else. I give MO credit though, every handicapper in the nation is tossing Came Home. At 8-1 or 9-1, take a shot, you have the best mile and a quarter jock in the world. (and I think a wet track, which now looks possible, may carry this horse a bit further than most think). Still, I haby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
how strange, I also had Dare and Go over Cigar, also had him in another Grade 1 (wire to wire, can't remember which one)... but to be honest, in the end, I am not even. I bet Captain Bodgit, Aptitude, Victory Gallop every time he ran (including a big exacta over RQ, and huge bets in the Travers and B.C.), the Rahy miler who lost by a nose in the B.C. (can't remember his name).... I coulby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Who decided to use Alex Solis??? Did you happen to notice the change in figures right after he was replaced??? Forget the post, or changing leads, you guys had the worst big race jockey to ride in the 90'sby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
one of the three Magnier/Tabor horses is going to take some very suspicious money. i will be taking a very long look at that one come derby day.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Now a "50-50 chance" that mayakovsky goes... that would make four horses now that appear to need the lead. (and three or four others that like to track just off the pace). horses like perfect drift and saarland are looking better every day....by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
If Mayakovsky runs (which we don't know yet), and if War Emblem, Medaglia, and Proud Citizen draw the inside posts (which we don't know yet), the pace will no doubt be faster than it otherwise would.......Betting Saarland and not concerned with the pace??? Personally, I have Saarland from a bet out in vegas in february, and I think there would be a world of difference between a 45.2 anby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Yes, Pat Day did a fine job in the Wood. I like Buddha, and will still use him. My point is that I think Day is only the sixth or seventh best jock out there, and at Churchill, they play him like he is the best. I would like the horse a lot more with Stevens at 7-1 than with day at 5-1 or 6-1.by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Relax for a few days mate.... some very important information still to come out yet (like the actual field and post positions)by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
anybody have any info on proud citizen's pedigree? can't seem to find the full tree anywhere......by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
I think you have picked out the most talented horse of the crop. I will be very surpried, however, if Pat Day outrides Bailey, Stevens, Pincay, Eddy D and JR all in the same race. At 4-1 or 5-1 on Buddha, I would wager that one of those guys takes Day to the cleaners at much higher odds. As for War Emblem, I think the numbers make sense for a mile and a eighth race at Sportsmans. This horse glidby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
I am confident that Eddy D will have this horse where he needs to be. At the speed favoring California tracks, it is usually very difficult to win dirt races if you are tucked in at the rail reserving your horse. That is why you see the most successful jockeys (ie. Mccarron, Espinosa) usually two or three wide getting full momentum runs from their horses. While Perfect Drift still may get a wideby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
for what it's worth (nothing no doubt), here is my opinion on your five horses... Request for Parole: excellent tactical speed makes him dangerous, human connections a major negative.... needs a lot of luck Private Emblem: moves way up in the slop... fast horse who will need a perfect stalking trip to get the job done. again, needs a lot of luck here. Perfect Drift: with Eddy D., this horby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
think the odds will be closer to 10-1 than 5-1, he does not run like he wants to go a mile and a quarter. but if you think this year's three year olds are that bad, I guess betting the best big race jockey in the world at 10-1 is not a bad bet.... good luck !!by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Thorograph and Ragozin clearly have a difference in opinion regarding the last few derby preps. A question for Thorograph... do you guys take into account the fact that both Came Home and Harlan's Holiday were ridden quite hard for the last three or four furlongs in their final prep? Meanwhile, Buddah was reserved until mid stretch by Pat Day. If Mccarron and Prado had reserved their horsesby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Can a Dynaformer gelding win the Derby? Of all the preps, no horse had a better looking stride running down the stretch than Perfect Drift. Does he have enough class?by Michael D. - Ask the Experts
I am not convinced on Essence of Dubai. Two decent sprints to start off last year, then a very average win in the Norfolk while coming home in 26 seconds. A deserving 33-1 in the Cup, and came home last in an even slower last quarter. This year he has a life and death battle to beat a horse called Firebreak, then beats Ibn Al Haitham by three lengths in the UAE Derby, the exact same margin he beaby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Any thoughts out there on the foreign horses ?? Essence of Dubai is going to make one late run, and it's going to be wide. Tough call. Johannesburg would have to be a superstar to win. Odds of him being a superstar are a lot higher than the odds you will get in the derby. Castle Gandolfo..... Baily takes the call, even though Mott (and the sheets) still call Blue Burner a contender. I finby Michael D. - Ask the Experts
Based on the comments, I guess the top three all score in the two and a half range, and Saar and BB in the three and a half range? Exactly how I would have scored it. Don't see the extra 1/8 of a mile helping the top three on Derby day though (given the four or five speed horses now in the mix).......... Did Rags really rate the Wood as a brilliant race? I'm not so sure, and am lookingby Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
In defense of TG, the new thoro-quick sheets have about 10 numbers that deal with factors other than just speed..... you should take a look.by Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
Aqueduct 1 1/8 race = short run to the back stretch, long run down the back stretch, short turn to the stretch, long stretch. with a 25 mph wind going directly with the back stretch run, and directly against the stretch run, you can toss out the fractional times completely. I think the pace was moderate to slow..... but I guess it's all just a matter of opinion.by Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
25 mph headwind heading home. Go out jogging one day in 25 mph wind and see the difference between going out and coming home. Adjusting for the conditions, the pace was rather slow.by Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
Mccarron had a tough older horse go only three lenghts faster a few races before Came Home ran, with a perfect rail skimmimg trip the whole way. I would not get too down on Came Home's race. I do agree, however....the extra 1/8th will not be very kind to him in the derby. I am going to look towards the top few Wood finishers, Perfect Drift, and Easy Grades on Derby day. (Harlan's Holidaby Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
will you do an analysis for the Sat Turfway card ??by Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
Came home is a relatively small horse with a sprinter's stride. He simply can not keep the pace he has been running for a mile and a quarter. With the Breeder's Cup and Dubai sprint a perfect fit for this horse, I dont think they will use him too much to try and win the Derby. Harlan's Holiday has stretched out well at Remington, Keeneland and Gulfstream, and I can see him runningby Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
Siphonic- a mile and a quarter unlikely Harlan's Holiday- can win the Blue Grass, and could wind up a brilliant miler, but this horse will not be charging down the lane on derby day... not a chance. Came Home- see Siphonic. Repent- a smooth change of leads after Bailey makes him run a solid first mile is extremely unlikely. (I do concede to him the Illinois Derby however) Johannesburg- wby Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
It is hard to argue that Repent is overrated, as he ran the last quarter in 24:0 flat while fighting Bailey the whole way. The horse looks brilliant to me. I do think, however, that his downfall will be his inability to smoothly change leads and explode down the lane in a field with 20 horses. Bet against him in the derby, but you have to agree, he is a nice horse ??by Michael Downey - Ask the Experts
Take Charge Lady might have one win left in her, the grade 1 at Keeleland in a few weeks. She will come in last in the Kentucky Oaks, and does not have any hope at all of competing with the older mares during the spring. I guarantee this.by Michael Downey - Ask the Experts