So many great points made by Frank D.
I am amazed how many horses are faster than the most likely favorite. I just have a couple things to add which are a little on the contrarian side.
Exagerrator-I know that everyone is looking for wet to move him up. If it is a wet track, his odds will go way down and I do believe that he may take over favoritism. I want a fast track. He will be pretty juicy odds for one of the fastest horses.
Nyquist-I too am not too keen on him. There are eight horses faster than him. However, with his running style, he should avoid trouble and get a crack at the pacesetter. I am not willing to throw him out of the exotics. His running style plus trainer make him a real threat to me. He was fast at two and has pretty much stayed the same. Looks a little like Super Saver to me.
Mohaymen and Danznig Candy. Both bounced last out. I know people are saying that Monarchos came back with a big derby run after a bounce. I looked back over the last six derbies and only Liason and Creative Cause either ran a top or paired up. I think the trend of less starts makes it imperative for a horse to run well in their preps. I counted 16 who had an off or an x. I guess at 10-1 for Mohaymen or 20-1 for Danzing Candy may make it palatable to play but not less.
Lastly, and my biggest contrarian position. Consider the Pletcher horses. I know that sounds crazy but a couple of things:
1) 2010-2016, Todd Pletcher has had three horses hit the board in the derby. He is tied with Baffert for the most. Stewart and Romans had two each. Pletcher has a bad rap for the derby but he is doing as well as the top derby trainer in the game the last few years.
2) While I have torn up plenty of tickets when horses like Carpe Diem and Gemologist ran terrible, most of his starters are easy tosses. Either too fast in the their last prep or they don't belong. Maybe Pletcher does not do a good job of setting owners straight and telling them that there horse has no shot. Let's look at Destin. He has the high fig for the field. I like that Pletcher is trying something new with this horse. He has failed with so many horses that have gone negative that he might as well try something different.
3) All of the so-called experts hate the Wood. Outwork has a good pair of figures with the last one being concealed since all anyone is saying that Outwork was all-out to hold off a maiden. He has a good pattern plus the running style to avoid issues. His dam sire is Empire Maker so I like his chance to get 10 Furlongs.
I know that we have a little ways to go but I like exaggerator and outwork.
Also, out of the closers, I Like Suddenbreakingnews. He is the fastest of the bunch plus a nice pattern(although I am not crazy about his slow figs at two)
thanks
john b
