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Re: Silly Season (996 Views)

May 18, 2016 02:39AM
Last I checked the Preakness is for 3 year olds and not for horses who were 3 years old in 2015. Comparisons of the like may be fine for bar stool conversations but do not forward handicapping one iota.

Furthermore, to address some of the figure backlash we must concede the numbers themselves are correct. No one else has produced them for the public with as sophisticated methodologies and experience. But remember these are Race horses not Figure horses! A figure is a numeric representation of a performance. Others have beefed for years about a west coast figure bias and since the past few years have been dominated by west coast horses whose figures were not stand outs going in then those same people say the/your numbers are wrong.

I say the numbers are right and I have a few simple observations on why those horses best numbers have shown up once racing in the east (save FL derby this year). California Chrome, AP and Nyquist all benefited from a tremendous tactical speed advantage (developed as a must in Cal racing) to create near perfect ground saving trips. This combined with the new points system has put them in less strain contesting the pace than previous years. They also like to win which cannot be taught and allows them to often run only as fast as required. They are also trained by men who have very high win percentages (2 of them in limited sample size) in the 3 year old classics vs Pletcher, Asmussen, McLaughlin among others. In other words, what turned out to be the best horse of the last 3 crops came from the west, were handled by excellent horsemen who got peak performances out of their highly competitive runners at the right time - late spring. That was the old fashion method and has always worked well just as the figures generated here.

While the observations are true they are not presented as assumptions and are only meant to show one approach to understanding the bigger picture. At the end of the day, the end user must always increase their level of sophistication and nuance interpreting and applying the figures no matter how they are generated as they become more reflected in the betting pools (big days aside due to excess public money).
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