Been awhile between posts. Hope all are well.
I see some things on the board haven't changed over the past two years. FrankD still the best weatherman east of the Mississippi, RichieB the best writer east or west of the Mississippi, Miff/mike still has never been wrong about anything, rags still coming up with incongruous figures in big spots yet the Jim jones like followers are not deterred, and of course the California figs for TG look a tad slow......
A few thoughts on the belmont, although of course not all entries are clear at this point and we still have to have the draw (although this is one race the draw seems to be less relevant).
The conversation has to start with Exaggerator. Disclaimer - I have bet him four straight times now, cashing twice, so I am a bit biased. I guess he can run another "0", which makes him tough here. That said, could there have been a better scripted trip than the one he got in the Preakness. Crazy duel up front with some questionable to dumb tactics by several front runners, followed up by a hall of fame inside out ride/trip from Kent D. With all that, he won easy, but was maintaining late, not drawing away. I know the figures sort of say he is as good on a dry track as he is wet, but even if that is true, it seems others regress on the wet track making him stronger relatively speaking. Now he has to go 1 1/2 miles in a relatively paceless race. Does Kent move earlier or does he continue what has been working. At 4/5 or so, there see, to be enough questions for me to look elsewhere.
I can't believe what I am about to write, as I am president of the "hate Pletcher" club, but it feels like the two best alternatives are both trained by him. I give both Destin and Stradivari a big shot. First off, the one race where betting Pletcher hasn't been a triple crown disaster has been the belmont. He also seems to get it that the longer race makes early position and speed more dangerous. He had his jockey put commissioner on the lead (still can't believe Jim Covello called that) as well as closer whose name escapes me the mine that bird / summer bird year. As the entries stand now, there are zero front runners. Destin and Stradivari should sit 1/2 or 2/1 and set a mild pace. Both have numbers strong enough to win with good trips, even if exaggerator fires a "0". Destin has now had 11 weeks since his 0 and Stradivari ran well in the Preakness considering the experience he was giving away. His figure 2 back is very competitive. Pletcher, who lives by giving rest to his horses, sel dome runs back fast. As much as I hate him, if he decides to let Stradivari run back on 3 weeks rest, it would be a huge sign of confidence.
I know suddenbreskingnews looks good on Tg, but hate his running style in what looks like a paceless race.
Good luck. Haven't read anything on the undercard, but assume it has to be good.
Jim
