Interesting thought on factory man as you call him.
Does anyone have stats on his firsters since the first of Jan? His 3yo's at Gulfstream as well as Belmont 3yo's (and at least one 2yo at Belmont) haven't won nearly as much on the days I have been able to follow but that is purely anecdotal evidence based on weekends only when I can follow closely. I have noticed in dirt races many haven't even hit the board even when favored.
If anyone can produce those stats, I would really be interested to see them. I think I saw a stat in the DRF the other day that he is 19 percent with firsters (for the last 24 months???, not sure length of that stat). That seems much lower than in years past.