Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When Downs After Dark racing ended in June, I went
> down in the paddock area to see the party that
> would be happening there. Before I made it there,
> I ran into Travis Stone who was with his friends
> as he was leaving (just be aware that he is close
> to the Casse barn when you see morning lines with
> Casse' horses as you may see a bias he wouldn't
> recognize).
>
> Anyway, I spoke to him about his Spa morning lines
> in a joshing manner. He didn't take it very
> kindly and pushed on me to explain further. So I
> responded "What about Seven Forty Seven who you
> had at 12-1 and went off about 6-5?" His reply
> tells you everything you will need to know about
> his understanding of a m/l.....
>
> He said (and I paraphrase but this is very, very
> close) I'll tell you just like I told my friends,
> 'that horse didn't win til this spring.' I
> immediately said It doesn't matter whether the
> horse won or not, what matters is what the odds
> were that day! We parted ways after that.
>
> On a final note, many of these guys making a m/l
> don't have the math right whatsoever for figuring
> out the morning line (their "points" add up way
> too high but I'll leave it at that without getting
> more technical). I believe I saw Stone discuss
> his method once around Derby time indicating he
> doesn't do it correctly in my opinion.
Was one of those in attendance for 747's debut.
747 was one of those cases of a firster showing flashy works, in the hands of a trainer known for winning first out. For whatever reason(s), the horse piqued the wagering public's imagination, as players chased each other over the cliff in pursuit of another hottie which turned cold faster than pizza. Given all that, it would have been a stretch for anyone to have guesstimated 747's "off" price, extreme as it wound up being.
It soon became clear that a couple of fast morning works do not automatically translate into racehorse aptitude and sustained grace under pressure in the afternoons.
Am reminded of an ad featuring one of America's highest-profile trainers, noting that a sales horse was the best physical specimen he'd ever laid his hands on. What was not mentioned is that said horse was a stone nutcase -- which he demonstrated repeatedly, subsequently.
Buyer, beware.
