I researched the archives back to 1997. Basically, if you're solely a stats person, Mendelssohn has a tall wall to climb in the Derby. Since '97, only 3 horses have won who came in with the best TG fig in their last prep. Those three winners however had a lesser spread between their figs 2 races back to their final prep than Mendelssohns, whose fig 2 back to his last fig in Dubai is one of the most significant spreads since 1997. But, it could be argued Mendelssohn is unique with Barbaro being the closest to compare too. To me (and I wonder what the rest of you think), I'm waiting on Mr. Brown's seminar to see how Aiden O'Brien has done in these situations. I'm guessing this world class trainer is able to maintain or improve the form for his top class stock even after a huge performance and when shipping.
