I thought Thunder Snow was the best 10f dirt horse in the race last year, and he probably was. but that didn't make it a good bet. now we have Mendelssohn coming over at less than half the price. more speed, better connections, and a perfect post certainly make him a more likely winner than TS, but is there really any value here? the # is fast, but so is the Beyer. everybody knows he's fast. and how much bounce risk is there? this is a really tough call.
leaning towards Audible and Hofburg at this point. the former fits well on #'s, and the latter should move forward, and they both should benefit from the fast pace. not yet sure how much I'll protect with Mendel.
Vino Rosso is another tough call. the price will be there, and he's got the pedigree to get the 10f, but there is a lot of ground loss in that Wood number. can we expect
less ground loss in the 20 deep Derby, from post 18?
