Re: A Differet Pattern For KY Derby Improvers & Tops (1090 Views)

BitPlayer Wrote:
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> The seminar says that recent stats suggest in a
> 20-horse field, we could expect two tops (10%).
> Indeed there were: Instilled Regard and Bravazo.
> My stats (2013-2017) show 12.5% new tops (12 out
> of 96).

> With regard to predicting who might run those new
> tops, the seminar relied on pattern data. In
> their last races, Instilled Regard ran an
> “Off” race (1.25 off top) and Bravazo ran an
> “X.” Since 2013, the only horse to run a new
> top in the Derby off a bad race was Frammento, who
> improved 3 points (to a 3.25) in the Derby after
> running 1.25 points off his top in his prior race.
> In that sample there were 6 horses coming into
> the Derby off an “X” and 15 coming in off an
> “Off.”


The Peter Pan @ Bel Sat - California horses run 1-2 and Baffert was not the culprit.

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I Posted the following a week before the race: My point is the jump up horses are in the majority Ca. horses.

Earlier I posted if someone/anyone thinks Justify lays over the derby field and that person certainly is not me, yet. That someone may have considered the following facts:

2018 - Justify runs a 1/2 point new top
- Instilled Regard becomes a 0 @ CD after insisting he was a 4 in SoCal
- Bravazo (an also ran), although not a Ca horse, jumps up to a non paying new top.

2017 - Battle of Midway a 5 or 6 point SoCal horse becomes a TG 1 @ CD

2016 - Nyquist a 2² - 3 point performer becomes a TG -0² @ CD

2015 - American Pharaoh continues improving up 2 pts @ CD
- Firing Line moves up 2² at CD

2014 - Supposed Underlay California Chrome didn't have to improve to waltz home a winner.

2013 - Goldencents regressed badly

2012 - I'll Have Another TG 1's & Bodemeister's TG 3 somehow blitz well regarded TG 2's and 3's of Union Rags, Alpha, El Padrino, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy.

2011 - Midnight Interlude - Baffert
- Comma To The Top - Miller
- Ran more like pretenders than contenders.

2010 - Looking At Lucky (moves 3 pts. back toward top) demonstrates the importance of the trip in a field with several closely matched rivals. Super Saver improves from TG 2 to TG 1 saves ground and gets the roses.

2009 - Pioneer of The Nile a Socal 3-4 becomes a CD TG 0 which surprisingly isn't good enough.

Not many want to bet the favorite but lately those that get the money @ CD come from west of Barstow and move up 2-3 points. We have a couple who could fit that criteria this year. Just a recent trend and of course may or may not continue in 2018,