I think it is a mistake to dismiss him based on City Zip. Improbable gets a ton of depth from his female line. With his dam coming out of AP Indy, and his second dam is a sister to Hard Spun.
Looking back, there were some questions about the breeding of Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, and California Chrome. Would have been foolish to arbitrarily omitted those horses who had run better than maybe their breeding suggested.
What evidence is there that Improbable won't get 10f?
He was coming off a 3.5 month layoff and still ran a great race in the Rebel...earning a very solid TG figure. Sure I would like to see him not get caught at the wire, but LRT ran a significantly slower figure while winning. Then in the slop at the Ark Derby he was agitated prior to the race, had to be re-loaded into the gate, was climbing as he appeared to not like the track, and still finished strong with the second fasted TG of the spring.
