Bit - is it possible that the probability is even higher than you suggest?
Using a calculator of Binomial and Cumulative probabilities, and the occurrence rate mentioned:
Probability of a single trial = .002
Number of trials = 200
Number of undesired events, x = 1
Binomial probability = P (X=x), = .268
Cumulative probability = P (X<x) = .670
Cumulative probability = P (X=<x) = .938
Cumulative probability = P (X>x) = .061
Cumulative probability = P (X>=x) = .329 or almost 33% chance of this event happening with the number of runners and the event rate of occurrence.
Is this possible?
BB
