The Curse of Apollo is often cited when looking at horses entered into the Kentucky Derby without at least one start as a 2YO. This year, Rock Your World, Soup and Sandwich and Sainthood fit that criterion. The argument is that the Kentucky Derby is such a taxing event that horses need the foundation they get as a 2YO in order to compete. Another often cited reason was that it was such a rough race and horses needed to be able to respond favorably to all of the crowding, bumping and changes in momentum. While it is just two data points, recent events have shown that foundation may not be as important as it was in the past (or these could just be aberrations). In 2018 Justify not only won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2YO, but he continued on and won the Triple Crown. In 2019 Maximum Security crossed the wire first. He debuted on December 20, so he made the cutoff by less than two weeks. The point is that the last two winners of the race when it was run on the traditional first Saturday in May had very little or no seasoning as a 2YO.
As the trend continues towards less preparation for the Derby is it possible that hoses not having raced as a 2YO are not at as big a disadvantage as they were in the past because their opponents are not as well seasoned either? While going 10f for the first time this early in the year is likely a large stressor for a 3YO, those two winners I cited were close to or on the lead, which means they did not have the same type of rough trips that many get when running in midpack or coming from behind. Is seasoning more of requirement for a horse in midpack or further? I have not seen it argued this way, but could have Maximum Security’s disqualification been partially a result of his lack of seasoning? Obviously questions we do not have answers for but things you likely want to think about when considering using or tossing one of the 2YO DNR’s (did not race) this year.
For what it is worth, Rock Your World missed his 2YO start by 16 hours as he made his debut on New Year’s Day. He worked 18 times as a 2YO so that has to be worth something. His first recorded work was in June, then he had 3 works in July, 1 in August and ended up on the shelf for almost two months. He started up again with 4 works in October, 5 in November and 4 in December prior to his debut on New Year’s Day. Soup and Sandwich only worked seven times as a 2YO. He had 4 works in April/May, then was off until December where he worked three times. He debuted on January 28. Sainthood worked 15 times as a 2YO. He started a sequence where he had 9 works between April and June, but ended up taking a break and not returning until November where he recorded 6 works through the end of the year. He debuted on January 9.
For reference, below is a listing of all the horses that started in the Kentucky Derby without starting as a 2-year-old since 1992. In that time, they have a collective record of 26-1-2-2. If you go back to 1937 (where the records supposedly begin), horses trying to win without 2YO form are 65-1-3-5. I guess the question is just how big of an influence was the lack of 2YO racing on their performance?
Horse-Year-Finish
Rock Your World-2021-?
Soup and Sandwich-2021-?
Sainthood-2021-?
South Bend-2020-15
Money Moves-2020-13
Magnum Moon-2018-19
Justify-2018-1
Battle of Midway-2017-3
Patch-2017-14
Materiality-2015-6
Verrazano-2013-14
Bodemeister-2012-2
Midnight Interlude-2011-16
Summer Bird-2009-6
Dunkirk-2009-11
Curlin-2007-3
Showing Up-2006-6
Greeley's Galaxy-2005-11
Song of the Sword-2004-11
Atswhatimtalknbout-2003-4
Wheelaway-2000-5
Curule-2000-7
Trippi-2000-11
Desert Hero-1999-13
Valhol-1999-15
Pulpit-1997-4
Strodes Creek-1994-2
Devil His Due-1992-12
Disposal-1992-18
