TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have no dog in this fight. But someone please
> explain to me why a guy would use a drug
>
> a) that doesn't move a horse up
>
> b) that he knows there's a test for
>
> c) because he's had a positive for it before,
> after which he swore publicly they would never
> allow it in the barn again.
>
> Walk me through the risk/reward on this. I have no
> idea whether Baffert is using something, but if he
> is it ain't this stuff. He's not an idiot.
Then let's reverse your scenario. A trainer who's had 3 Derby winners in 5 years gets exposed with two of them having to face doping issues, along with Gamine in the Oaks. If this drug is as innocuous as you suggest, why is it prohibited to the extent it's got its own test to detect it? And since its prohibited everywhere, not just in Kentucky, why would that be if it offers no assistance to performance anyway? That the same guy - who just went through months of trying to shake off the medication rap of Justify - turns up with another positive in the Derby, let's call it an overall pattern that any common sense suggests is "suspicious" (and that's being charitable). As to your statement about Baffert not being an idiot in this case because you suggest he's too smart to get caught with this...I'll offer a scenario to prove this in fact makes him the biggest idiot for the reason you cite.
The KHRC is going to have to disqualify Medina Spirit because the horse is in violation of their rules governing permissive use medication - full stop. That means his owners lose the purse money. They now get zero. If the KHRC doesn't disqualify Medina Spirit, what do you think the other owners of the runners up will do? They'll go straight to court, and it will be an open and shut case. The 2nd-6th place owners all stand to get much more money by getting Medina Spirit disqualified and redistributing the purse. To avoid the protracted court battle and it's attendant terrible publicity, the KHRC will almost be forced to disqualify to get the thing shut down now, because the last thing they want is to uphold Medina Spirit as the winner and then have a judge toss the whole thing out. They end up looking stupid, and worse, it can make the KHRC look they they are part of the corruption. Not to mention, what do you think Pimlico is facing now? They have to decide what to do - allow Baffert and all the horrible press of all his doped steeds come to Maryland? The MD Racing Commission will need guidance from the KHRC - will Kentucky suspend Baffert for his overall pattern of violations in Kentucky's two biggest races in 3 of the last 5 years? ALL of this fallout from a guy you say gives an innocuous prohibited substance he knows they test for that won't help his horse win.
Now tell us again how stupid Baffert ain't. If they disqualify via KHRC or a judge, he will have cost the owner a ton of money. That qualifies as an idiot in my book.
