Starting to like this colt too much.
Almost as much as I like Dynamic One in the Belmont, even though I have not
heard anything about TAP's plans for DO, understandable in that I am not
certain that DO has finished the Derby yet.
I need to digress here and say that Chad Brown is a factor in any stake in NA,
turf or dirt. My problem with his two runners in the Preakness is that they are
coming out of dull efforts in the Wood. The 1-2 finishers in the Wood were non factors in the Derby.
Back to Bourbon:
Since we are in TG territory let's discuss patterns. Let's take hypothetical
horse A: Here is his hypothetical TG sequence: 10-10-7-7-4-4. I would expect
"A" to advance in his next race, moving forward from the 4, and since the
previous forward moves were in 3 point increments, and if A has more
improvement in him, another 3 point move possible?
I looked for the sheet for 2020 Ky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil (can't find her
sheet in Archives) who I seem to recall had a similar pattern going into the
Oaks. The point is that MB has a pattern very close to Hypohorse A and
Shedaresthedevil, and the projected forward move would put MB in the thick of
things here.
Trip: Baffert's embarrassment of riches hurts him here because I think both of
his entrants will be 1-2 going down the backstretch, with lots of cat and
mouse/moose and squirrel going on between Smith and Johnny V. I would love to
see Irad sitting in third or fourth, not far off front runners.
Pedigree: MB's dam has produced four foals, all stakes winners, including La.
Derby winner Girvin. Going back further on the dam side one finds Monique Rene
(twice), a mare who was running in Louisiana when I was there in the early
1980s. Monique was very tough, winning 29 of 46 starts, likely gaining the
approval of Pan Zareta, a mare that was foaled in 1910 and had a lifetime
record of 151/76/31/21. PZ was champion female of 1914 (no JohnnyM I did not
see HER run) and is buried in the Fair Grounds infield.
Other: I am really skeptical of Medina's ability to come back in two weeks
without Lasix and to deliver another knockout punch, especially with the
expected pace pressure. I also have the suspicion that ME might have hind end
weaknesses (I am not talking about diaper rash) which may have been the cause
of the controversial overage. Unfortunately my evidence of ME's hind problems
ranges from no evidence to speculation to hearsay.
I think my value play here would be to play ME out of the exacta and maybe even
out of the tri...
