Grinder,
I agree with your thought re: this race being a poor race to wager upon.
If not for the Baffert/MS circus extravaganza, I see Concert Tour as a superstar play for several reasons I wont get into. But given the eyes upon the barn, the multiple tests, the MS positive test after Derby, and the performance today far back in the BES by Beautiful Gift, it is hard to take that stand.
Another reason (besides the circus surrounding Baffert horses that may mean they don't have their usual "prep" for the race) is the lack of wagering on these two horses so far in doubles and the win pool. We all have a pretty good idea what the wagering public does when we look at the PP's. MS and CT look like 8 to 5 and 5-2 with Bourbon around 5-2 to 3-1 to my mind. And certainly no way I see MB as the favorite on paper. The win pool at last report I saw had Midnight Bourbon at 5 to 2, MS at 7-2, and CT at 4-1. This speaks volumes.
As some of you may recall, Baffert won with Gamine, Du Jour and MS on Derby Day. A horse who didn't win was Defunded in the Pat Day Mile. The horse ran a monster race: The chart says 6 wide turn, 6 path upper, flattened, beaten 4 3/4 lengths behind Jackie's Warrior as the 2nd choice at 3.10-1. There is no way that horse should have been 3-1 in that 11 horse field. In the G2 American Turf, Du Jour went off at 5-1 in a 14 horse field (3rd choice) and Baffert won that one by a comfortable 1 1/2 lengths. (anyone recall Hellmers "interview" when Bob said he isn't set up for turf race in his barn LOL). Baffert said in a 30 min interview the week after the Derby (before the big news) that he thought he would be the KING OF THE UNDERCARD. He thought all 3 of those would win but Defunded just wasn't as good as those he commented in the interview. My point is his horses got hammered when they were well intended. And those two I cited suggest that someone is attempting to cash in when he thinks they are READY, SET, GO.
So for neither CT nor MS to be the favorite speaks Volumes. Now maybe they are able to get one or both of these horses their usual "prep" for the big race. Maybe they are not. But the betting suggests right now that they aren't and someone knows it.
Some may view this as an opportunity to toss both and really take a swing. But then I'm reminded of Firenzie Fire who was under the care of Servis but has continued to grind out wins under a different trainer. So it is hard to say how this all plays out esp with lack of pace in some people's eyes.
Personally, I have no confidence I have an opinion that could be wagered here with the circus and lack of betting on Baffert and the BES (lack of) effort. I'm with ya grinder, I'm passing the race. Baffert is sitting back in California and telling people he is Not Winning Jewel 2 it seems. Maybe by race time, he says they are GO. Who knows. I certainly don't. Now if I find something at Arlington or Canterbury this weekend, I might pick on a few races there.
Good Luck to those brave enough to say they know what happens in the Preakness and successfully wager. I think it a complete farce they are letting this guy run horses. . .
