I think that if you are betting without looking at odds projections from other pools, you are making a mistake. I know DRF Bets includes odds projections from rolling doubles in its wager pad, and I think the same projections are included in Formulator. Other ADW's may have reasons for not doing the same, but I don't know what they are. The math is relatively straightforward. Instead they include things like AI picks and profit lines.
Here are the DRF Bets projections for the horses mentioned in this thread:
Beau Luminarie: 5/2
Microcap: 4/1
Caramel Swirl: 7/2
Cowboys Dream: 9/2
Get Back Goldie: None (1st race, no rolling DD)
I post my odds projections on Twitter from time to time and keep track of how the off-odds compare to my projections. For the Belmont fall meet, I have posted projections for 60 races in which there was no late scratch. In those races, 29 of the winners paid less than I projected, 2 paid the same amount, and 29 paid more.
For stakes races mostly at non-NYRA tracks going back to May of this year, I have posted projections for 187 races in which there was no late scratch. 89 of the winners paid less than I projected, 10 paid the same amount, and 88 paid more.
I concede that odds projections from DD betting are not perfect. In my experience, the final payout is 10% or more less-than-projected about 25% of the time and is 20% or more less-than-projected about 10% of the time.
