Very little handicapping lately so will post the Beldame.
6th race Belmont
1 1/8 (assuming fast track)
Need a 1 to 2 to win the race on TG
In PP order:
1) Thankful (Pletch and Carmouche) Looks slow on TG. TOSS
2) So Darn Hot (Weaver and Javier C) Has an isolated # back in June that would be competitive here, But nothing before or after. TOSS
3) Zaajel (Pletch & Franco) His TG top one back won't do it here. Needs to run a new top. Don't see it coming . TOSS
4) Horologist (Mott and Alvarado) Frank said Alvarado is "lost" so will avoid here. LOL His last TG was against a 5 horse field had favorable race dynamics in her favor (no other speed). More importantly, Horologist has reacted to every "top" the past 3 years. Expecting similar reaction today and think the 2 to 1 ML favorite quite vulnerable. PLAY AGAINST to WIN
5) Gold Spirit (Chad and J. Ortiz) South American invader on 3rd start. needs to move forward. Possible pace pressure but still a TOSS to me.
6) Miss Marissa- (Ryerson and Lezcano) Should call her Miss Mystery!. The 2 Delaware TG's in July make here borderline competitive. But her Personal Ensign versus Letruska won't cut it. Pace pressure and back TG's make here USE in verticals.
7) Spice is Nice (Pletcher Johnny V) Has 2 TG's that make Spice competitive.
Tactical. Runs fresh off layoffs. I.E. Won 1st asking, Paired top off 3 moth and 7 month layoffs. Issues YES but off 3 months and I expect this one to fire a shot. Negative. Never went through lifetime top 1st out. USE
8) Royal Flag (Chad and Joel) 5/2 ML may not hold. Fast on TG. Consistent sting of TG's with a new top in Personal Ensign. If Horologist "bounces" or 'reacts', then RF most likely winner. USE
What I like About tis race:
Horologist likely to be over bet and will face pace pressure from the #'s 3, 5 and or 6.
AT ML of 6-1 ( think I would take 4-1 or better) Spice will be my key.
