The Tapeta surface at GP has given me some problems as it seems like you need a completely different set of handicapping tools to get to the winners. Of the last 100+ route races over the Tapeta surface just 13% were wire to wire. Contrast that with the main track where you have more than twice as many on the lead winners (35%) and over 3/4 of the winners came from horses that were on the lead or within two lengths of the lead at the half mile pole in GP dirt routes. The point is it is tough to go coast to coast routing on the GP synthetic surface. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems like it is equally as tough trying to pass a significant portion of the field and get to the wire first. Many of the winners take up a good stalking position early and move closer to front on the turn so they are in position to grind to a win. Almost half of the winners come from between 2 and 6 lengths back at the half mile pole. There are almost 30% who come from within two lengths of the leader at the half mile call, while those who are six or more lengths behind early make less than 10% of the winners. So, the style you are looking for at GP Tapeta routes is somewhere within six lengths of the early leader, but not the leader itself. For turf routes, the running styles have been fairly evenly distributed with almost 30% of the winners being on the lead at the half mile pole, about 30% being within two lengths at the half mile pole and slightly more than 30% coming from 2 to 6 lengths behinds. That leaves 10% of the winners coming from six or more lengths behind at the half mile mark.
For Tapeta sprints, it seems you need to be a bit closer as over half of the winners were pressers within two lengths of the leader but not on the lead (about 50%), while the rest of the winners are fairly evenly split between being on the lead (about 27%) or racing between 2 and 5 lengths of the lead (about 24%). It has been virtually impossible to win sprinting on the Tapeta at GP from more than six lengths back at the half mile poll as just one horse has been able to do it. In fact, it has been very difficult for any horse to win from farther than six lengths back on any surface or distance at GP – not impossible, just very difficult. In terms of main track sprints, almost 90% of the winners come from within two lengths or less at the half mile pole – you need to have some speed at GP to have a shot sprinting on the main. In fact, 50% have been on the lead at the point in time and almost 40% of the others have been within two lengths of the lead. That leaves just 9% of the winners further back than two lengths at the half mile pole in GP sprints over the main course and most of those were within 6 lengths. Speed has been king in GP turf sprints with 56% of the winners on the lead at the half mile pole, while oddly to me, only 4% of the winners were represented by a horse within 2 lengths of the lead. About one third of the winners came from 2 and 6 lengths back at the quarter pole (32%). A little less than 10% of the winners around one turn at GP on the grass came from more than 6 lengths back.
