If you can forgive the fact that I analyzed the card without any sheet talk, here's an analysis that I sent to a couple of friends for this card.
Fair Grounds 2/19/22. My best races are the 3rd, 5th, 10th, 11th & 13th.
1st race: La. Bred maidens, impossible :Pass
2nd race:
#2 Indigo Miss (7/2): Lobo FTS with Luis Saez up. This is a half siter to stakes winners Hot Rod Charlie and Mitole. Working well for debut.
#4 Royal Flower (9/2): Asmussen/Rosario FTS who sold for $1.2 million as a yearling. She’s a half to stakes sprinter Yaupon and might have a distance advantage over the top choice, who may want longer. Asmussen hits on 19% of his FTS sprinters and 16% at FG.
#9 Rather Be Lucky (3/1): Stall 2nd time starter missed by a head in debut and ran the best race among those who have started, but may be meeting 2 future stakes winners in the top 2 picks.
3rd race:
#4 Catnip (8/1): Stidham FTS comes off a series of long steady works including a 6f work in 112.8 last Sunday. Half brother of multiple graded stakes winner Princess Grace.
#3 Baronne (12/1): Flashed speed in 5.5 f turf debut & faded. This half to long distance G1 turf winner Beach Patrol should be much improved in his 2nd start stretching out.
The two ML favorites #7 More than Work (5/2) and #5 Mazuma (3/1) will be looking to hit the board in here and complete exotics.
4th race: In a race loaded with FTSs I’m going with #8 Can’t Hush This (8/1) and #9 Marsalis (7/2), Pletcher’s #10 Momentous (6/1) could upset. Among the ones who have started #5 (5/1) Vintage Vinyl looks the best.
5th race:
#11 Blue Lou Boyle (7/2)-One of 4 in this race with 3 wins, the other 8 have only 1 win each. Ran 2nd in his last start & could take this
#10 Prarie (12/1): Claimed off a win for $30k off Stall by Juan Cano, who has won 26% of his claims the last 5 years, 3 of 6 claims at FG with 2 of those 3 with today’s jockey Beschizza.
6th race: A real toss up where the board may tell us more than the past performances.
#3 Strong Quality (4/1): Ran 3rd Zozos in a 6f sprint then Zozos jogged by 10.25 lengths when stretched out at OP, might have a class edge.
#4 Maasai Warrior (7/2): Missed by ¾ of a length in lst, back to Geroux today for Cox.
#9 King Ottoman (5/1): FTS for Asmussen/Rosario, but Asmussen is only 13% with FTS route runners and is 1/16 with these types at FG. Much worse stats than with his debuting sprinters (see 2nd race for his sprint #s).
7th race: A 5.5f minor stakes race on turf, PASS.
8th race: Can Cox bring a knife to a gun fight & prevail? We’re going to find out here. I’m saying close but no Cigar.
#7 Guntown(5/1): He was last seen in November running 9th, over 14 lengths back in his final 2 YO race. But what a race it was! This is the definitive key race of last year’s 2YO season. Winner Smile Happy, the current Kentucky Derby winter book favorite begins his 3YO campaign in today’s finale where he’ll be a heavy favorite. 3 horses have come back to win Derby prep 3YO stakes. Sure, it’s a stretch to get the 9th place finisher to win his 3YO debut, but this is a HUGE class drop based on the subsequent races of the field that day. First time Lasix and has been gelded since that race.
#6 Cyberknife (7/2)-Ran 6th losing by 10.5 in the Lecomte but goes back on Lasix today and has the best speed #s outside of his last.
#9 Gunfighter (9/2): Improved in last when stretched out for his 1st route, and 1st time Lasix. Watch the 6th to see what the place horse Maasai Warrior does and either move him up or down based on the 6th race result.
9th race:
#3 Abscond (7/2)-If this race was a mile, she’d be close to a lock, but is questionable at 1 1/16th Was the last race too far, or did she need the race off a 2.5 month layoff? We’ll find out today.
#1 Pas the Plate (3/1)- Won her last beating the top choice and picks up 4 pounds. Could take another and there’s no distance question.
#4 Out of Sorts (8/1)-If this race is on a firm turf, toss her, but if the race is run on a softer turf surface she movers up, big time.
10th race:
#7 Midcourt (8/1) Hasn’t been seen since running poorly in SA’s G1 Awesome Again stakes last October. Ships out of So. Cal for the 1st time of his career and goes back to Lasix today. May not do much after this race, but this horse, who has only raced twice since 2020 may have one more in him running fresh at age 7.
#4 Olympiad (3/1) We have no idea what his ceiling is. He jogged by 7 at GP in his last and could jump up and win his 1st stakes race.
#10 Untreated (9/2) Won 2 straight 1 turn mile allowance races at Aqueduct & not ships to FG from Florida. May handle the rise in class.
11th race:
#3 Santin (12/1) I seriously doubt we’ll get 12/1 on this lightly raced colt who is coming off a neck loss in the G1 Hollywood Derby at Del Mar last November. Gets weight off & Lasix back,he won his 1st 2 races with Lasix before going off Lasix for his G1 placing in California. A horse on the rise who should win his 1st stakes race this Saturday.
#6 Adhamo (9/2) The unknown. Ships in for Chad after racing his whole career in France, including a G3 win at 1 1/8th. Probably the only horse with a legitimate shot at beating my top choice.
I do not believe the two ML favorites, #11 & #10 can challenge my top choice.
12th race:
#1 La Crete (8/1) Undefeated Asmussen filly will be overlooked due to slower speed #s, but this filly has done nothing wrong and is a half to last year’s race winner Clairiere. I’ll be using #4 (6/1), #9 (7/2) and #11 (3/1) underneath and in multi race bets.
13th race: I’ve been waiting for Smile Happy’s 3YO debut & here it is.
#8 Smile Happy (7/2)-More like even money than 7/2. Ran the definitive key race for 2YOs in 2021 producing 3 stakes winners of Derby preps. Training well for return and is the most likely winner of the day.
In order behind Smile Happy are #10 (9/2), #5 (4/1), #1 (4/1) and #7 (9/2).
