Re: Florida Derby (398 Views)

per BRIS if I understand correctly from a sample of 40 races all three-year-olds stakes & Handicap races @GP $100k+ the betting favorite wins 48% of the time.

So one doesn't need much of a price to have a positive potential.

Whichever of the top four(4) contenders ends up the favorite it's likely the crowd will get it right.

Based on that I will look for value underneath and even that seems iffy now that I'm expecting a chalky finish.

My final angle will be (same source) runners of P-type have fared well recently albeit a small sample. Those would be Papacap, Cajun's Magic, and Steal Sunshine.

Steal Sunshine + competent trainer stats, well enough bred to not discount, apparent good recent works. - unheralded rider, post position no history that suggests the ability to finish near the top ones here. But - IMO the potential for a jump up.

Cajun's Magic + has already run fast enough to be considered. c/b an alternator or maybe just inconsistent. - no celebrities in any category so it's hard to know what connections may be thinking.

Papacap + lightly raced as 3 y/o, ran fast at the end of his 2 y/o campaign including a 2nd place finish in the BC Juvy. Casse has been working him fast and often. - his last race resulted in a collapse and quit trying just as he should have been making his run. He's attended a fast pace previously. ? so the question mark is his condition because he's previously proven capable.

Investment Strategy
The race offers ex, tri, spr, and super hi-5. So under the four m/l favorites, I will use Papacap on the bottom of the tri and super, additionally, I will use Cajun's Magic & Steal Sunshine at the bottom of the super high-5 behind the above mentioned 5 contenders.

Good Luck!