Re: Morello Thought (460 Views)

One fun thing about Morello with the new timing of the futures pool is that you will have a good idea of his Wood odds before the futures pool closes. That will allow you to evaluate which is the better option: a futures bet or a Wood-Derby parlay.

To keep the numbers simple, say he looks to go off at 2-1 in the Wood and is 17-1 in the futures pool (currently 16-1). Since he would pay $6 in the Wood and $36 to win in the futures pool, in order to bet him in the futures pool, you would have to think that (off a win in the Wood) he is likely to go off at less than 5-1 on Derby Day.

Of course, there are aother possibilities to consider. He could run a good second in the Wood and then still run in the Derby (a la Funny Cide), but your parlay would be dead. On the flip side, he could win the Wood and then have an issue that forces him to miss the Derby, allowing you to keep you Wood winnings.