Thinking about the future pool this weekend? Because it closes prior to the preps this Saturday, one important aspect of that is how likely is your pick going to make the Derby field? You may want to take that into account when shopping for a price. I put together a handy chart to help determine what each selection needs to do to make the field - obviously staying healthy would be a component of that as well, so with a month out, you my want to a bigger price to help offset that time period. How many times have we seen a favorite go south just days prior to the Derby? You can't win the race unless your horse makes it to the gate.
As the points currently stand, there are 12 horses who have 50 points or more. With three major preps to run at 100-40-20-10 this weekend and the Lexington next week at 20-8-4-2 there will be some “leap frogging” in the points. Obviously, the winners of the three big preps will earn enough points no matter how many they have currently, but the minor awards become very intriguing when considering horses that already have some points in the bank. The scenarios presented do not take into account attrition (and let’s face it, there’s always some attrition) or some late maneuvering into the Lexington to try to make the field. I have seen people note frequently that 40 points would get you into the field, but that is certainly not a guarantee. I think it's likely that most if not all horses with 40 points will make the starting gate if they so desire on the first Saturday in May, but 40 points will likely not be an “automatic” entry into the field. That being said, I will use 40 points as the threshold, at which I will consider that to be enough points. However, there are scenarios if every race ran in a specific order and there was no attrition that 40 points would not get you into the field. Also remember that for horses with the same number of points, entry in the field goes by unrestricted stakes earnings. This may become very important for those on the bubble with 40 points.
One question I have not been able to answer is while Churchill Downs did not allow Baffert trained horses to earn any points for the Derby, I am not sure if their unrestricted stakes earnings in those races would be counted in the total. This is a very important question if any of his former charges run second, especially Messier. If Messier runs second in the SA Derby, he would get 40 points for running second, and would earn $150K. If they counted his other unrestricted stakes earnings, which is about $240K, he would move to the top of the list of the 40 point getters. However, if they do not count the earnings, he would be near the bottom of the list of 40 point getters. Depending on how the Bluegrass and Wood ran out, that could make him first on the list of those with 40 points or as little as sixth. This makes a big difference as I suspect Messier will be at least the second, if not the first favorite by the time the pool closes. If there was not much attrition in the next month, there could be some 40 point earners on the outside looking in. You can never really determine what the point value to make the starting gate will be, but 40 points is not a bad cut off.
There are nine entries that that need a level of performance to become eligible to make the starting gate - some of which are mutually exclusive. It is also interesting to me that half of the horses listed at single digit odds need a level of performance to make the field. Messier has to finish second or better, while Smile Happy needs to run at least fourth. I am not sure how Pioneer of Medina was put into this field given he only has 25 points and as far as I could tell, was not pointing for the Lexington next week. Even if he goes there, he would still need to win it (like In Due Time) in order to make the field.
1. Barber Road 30-1. 58 points - done with final prep, will make field
2. Charge It 12-1. 40 points - done with final prep, may end up a bubble horse
3. Crown Pride 50-1. 100 points - done with final prep, will make field
4. Cyberknife 12-1. 100 points - done with final prep, will make field
5. Early Voting 20-1. 10 points - Wood, needs to finish second or better
6. Emmanuel 20-1. 10 points - Bluegrass, needs to finish second or better
7. Epicenter 5-1. 164 points - done with final prep, will make field
8. Ethereal Road 50-1. 20 points - Bluegrass, needs to finish third or better
9. Forbidden Kingdom 8-1. 50 points - SA Derby, will make field
10. In Due Time 50-1. 20 points - Lexington probable, needs to win
11. Messier 8-1. 0 points - SA Derby, needs to finish second or better
12. Mo Donegal 20-1. 12 points - Wood, needs to finish second or better
13. Morello 20-1. 50 points - Wood, will make field
14. Pioneer of Medina 30-1. 25 points - Likely needs more points - not scheduled to race
15. Simplification 15-1. 74 points - done with final prep, will make field
16. Slow Down Andy 50-1. 60 points - done with final prep, will make field
17. Smile Happy 6-1. 30 points - Bluegrass, needs to finish fourth or better
18. Summer Is Tomorrow 50-1. 40 points - done with final prep, will make field
19. Tawny Port 50-1. 40 points - done with final prep, will make field
20. Tiz the Bomb 12-1. 110 points - done with final prep, will make field
21. White Abarrio 8-1. 112 points - done with final prep, will make field
22. Zandon 20-1. 10 points - Bluegrass, needs to finish second or better
23. Zozos 30-1. 40 points - done with final prep, will make field
24. All Other 3-Year-Olds 15-1. *depends on results of preps
*Notable - both Classic Causeway (66) and Un Ojo (54) have earned enough points to start if they so desire. If they went, they would be in the ALL OTHER 3YO category.
