Re: Ky derby field (693 Views)

May 02, 2022 08:44PM
I imagine several distinct groups barring too much traffic or trouble in the first turn.

Group One - Pacesetters 3 Epicenter, 5 Smile Happy, 6 Messier, 7 Crown Pride, with 16. Cyberknife and 17 Classic Causeway closing down from the outside.

Group Two - 2nd Turn Movers, 8 Charge IT, 9 Tiz The Bomb, 10. Zandon, 13 Simplification, 14 Barber Road, 15 Wite Abarrio

I'm not sure what to expect from 12. Taiba but I don't expect him to go to the lead. Consequently as good as Mike Smith is, he risks getting bumped around and ground loss on both turns, I suppose we could see a Monarchos-like move with him circling the field. A Mine That Bird trip to likely to get blocked IMO.

How to beat the front runners - tire them out by forcing them to run too fast to soon. I think that potential is there.

How to beat the endurance horses let the early runners get away with a comfortable pace. The defection of Early Voting suggests Chad Brown's team thinks there are enough kamikaze types to set the race up for the best closers.

In the end the survivor or survivors of the pace war IMHO Epicenter and Cyberknife mixed with Zandon, Charge It. Or flipped.

As someone who follows Asian Racing, I can tell you That Christian LeMaire is as good a jockey as any. Used to big fields and long distances. Admittedly, I am biased but my future money is already on the Japanese entry.

Yes, there are outliers capable of running the race of their life and winning or getting a piece. At least one highly regarded contender is sure to flop and that is the fun

First Impressions.
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