While it can be fun to choose a bet intuitively and win we know in the long term it is economic folly.
Playing objectively is a grind more or less but more winners and fewer losers lets us continue in the game.
My Derby Handicapping excluded the two Baffert Horses for subjective reasons. I had decided Baffert is a bad guy! Consequently, I'm against him and his horses.
Then I got a couple of days of good sleep woke up this morning and thought. Why would I leave a horse like Messier (@ 8/1) out of consideration same for the one that beat him Taiba (@ 12/1)
Without a good reason to believe Messier or Taiba will run poorly, I would be contradicting my value tenets to ignore them.
Job #1 is to get by the Mint Juleps and 7-layer dip and still be conscious by post time. I will have defensive win bets on both and if one wins well same-old-@#$%&.
If not well I like a good Kentucky Derby Story as much as anybody.
arigato
