Here's how I see the field for the VERY difficult race:
1. Blending Swords 5-1 : I don't necessarily like the way this one reacted to the two tops last season, especially given that he was given rest after each of them. At the price and the likely reaction to a near top, I'll stay away.
2. Star Over The Bay 4-1 : After the change of stable to Ritvo, paired up tops, bounced, then ran right back to the tops. Ran last out on short rest and reacted slightly. However given the month break, I can see this one getting back and even breaking through slightly to a new top. Not the best ML, but should be an OK price given the nature of this field.
3. Treasured Gift 15-1 : Nice price, but I don't care for the line too much. The long layoff combined with the fact that this one not only ran a top, but then improved upon it by almost 2 points scares me a bit given his frailty. The fact that he now moves into Ice Cold Gary Sciacca's barn can't help matters much. (BTW, what has happened to Sciacca in the last 2 years?)
4. Second Act 15-1 : Pass.
5. Corporate Storm 20-1 : I can see this one rounding back to his previous top, but by no means breaking through for a new top. Even at the price, probably not a play with this bunch. Maybe a use for a price in triples only if spreading deep.
6. Sir Brian's Sword 5-1 : Definitely an interesting line. Getting back to the top in two effeorts after having to take a break after reacting to pairing the top last spring makes be believe that this one could improve on that top and make a strong run for the win.
7. Sovereign Kit 6-1 : Consistent as they get but probably a point or so slow to contend. Figures to possibly get caught wide with the three runners inside of her fanning her wide. Good use for exotics.
8. Amazon River 12-1 : Is routing really her game? Doesn't appear to be. The two turf sprint figures from last fall really throw a wrench into things. I'm tempted to use only in the third slot of triples.
9. River Sounds 8-1 : Line I liked but scratched.
10. Flamin' Jolie 3-1 : Rather solid line, but I question the chances for breaking through her top. Given that question, the odds, and the likelyhood she'll lose ground, I'll pass.
All of this being said, I like Star Over The Bay, the only question being is the price he will be. Underneath I like Sir Brian's Sword and Sovereign Kit. Hopefully Flamin' Jolie will feel the effects of a wide trip and the 120 lbs. and miss the board as the ALL button seems like a good use for third.
Good luck Richie.
